On Monday, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell proposed a convoluted Mac Jones trade that makes sense for the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers. Barnwell suggested that the 49ers trade Jones and a 2027 third-round pick to Minnesota for a 2026 second-round pick, a conditional 2027 fifth-rounder, and a conditional 2028 third-round pick.
“It’s reasonable to say that McCarthy deserves more time, having started just 10 games during two seasons as a pro,” Barnwell reasoned. “Even if you’re making that argument, though, the Vikings need real competition for him in camp.”
Trading two conditional picks is convoluted but savvy. Mac Jones could become the next great reclamation project, à la Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield. However, he could also become Kirk Cousins, a polarizing quarterback who’s good but not elite.
Barnwell’s proposal allows the Vikings to hedge on Jones.
In this deal, the 49ers get a second-rounder for a future third-rounder. There are also two conditional picks, which should help protect them if Jones blossoms in Minnesota.
The 2027 conditional pick would trigger based on Jones’ playing time with the Vikings. If he starts four games in 2026, the Vikings send a fifth-round pick out west. If Jones starts 12 games, that gets upped to a third-rounder. And then, if Jones re-signs with the Vikings after the 2026 season and starts at least one game for the Vikings in 2027, the 49ers would land another third-round pick.
If Jones spends just 2025 backing up McCarthy, the 49ers swap only the Day 2 picks. If Jones emerges as the long-term starter in Minnesota, though, the Vikings could send a second-rounder and two third-round picks to the 49ers — a price that Kevin O’Connell would surely be happy to pay for an upgrade at quarterback.
That’s a lot of contingencies, but that’s by design. The Vikings would be bringing Jones in to compete with McCarthy in camp, not outright replace him. Therefore, they should send more back to San Francisco if he becomes a starter, while avoiding overpaying if he turns out to be a backup.
People are down on McCarthy after a disappointing first season, but the Vikings don’t want to move on from him too early after making the same mistake with Darnold. McCarthy is only 23, and his poor play is likely more the result of starting him before he was ready rather than a lack of natural talent.
Furthermore, Jones may not turn out to be as good as Darnold, even if the Vikings fully optimize him. NFL.com’s prospect guru, Lance Zierlein, compared Darnold to Andrew Luck coming out of USC. The Indianapolis Colts selected Luck first-overall in 2012. He had the talent to become a franchise quarterback, but injuries derailed his career.
Meanwhile, Zierlein compared Mac Jones to Daniel Jones. Like Darnold, Daniel Jones left the Vikings and had success this season. However, the Indianapolis Colts played the league’s seventh-easiest schedule, and Daniel Jones played behind an exceptionally healthy offensive line. The Colts will likely bring him back, but they don’t expect him to be Andrew Luck.
Zierlein wrote that a lot of Mac Jones’ production at Alabama was the result of Nick Saban’s coaching and the talent around him.
The tape shows too much predetermined decision-making about where he wants to go with the football rather than letting the coverage and his progressions speak to him.
While the production looks great, he has clearly benefited from a wealth of riches up front, in the backfield, and at wide receiver. He has a tendency to play with some panic when pressure gets after him and could struggle when things aren’t optimal around him. Jones has good backup to low-end starter potential.
If that sounds like Kirk Cousins, it’s because Mac Jones is a similar quarterback. Cousins thrived when played on a team with a strong defense and running game. However, NFL coaches and executives didn’t feel he drove winning on his own.
Kyle Shanahan has said the Niners are not planning to trade Mac Jones. However, another team could probably give San Francisco an offer they can’t refuse.
Furthermore, the Atlanta Falcons will likely cut Cousins when the league year starts in March. Shanahan was with the Washington Commanders when they drafted Cousins, and he’s remained a fan of Cousins. The Niners could flip Mac Jones while he’s in his prime and bring in Cousins, 38, to back up Brock Purdy. That way, they can bolster their roster while creating a floor at quarterback.
The Vikings will likely call about Mac Jones. They want bona fide competition for J.J. McCarthy, and Niners GM John Lynch may be willing to accept a creative deal.
It’s only natural to think that the Vikings would pursue Mac Jones a year after they watched Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks. Darnold spent a season with the 49ers before the Vikings signed him. There, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan helped reset Darnold after the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers muddled his early-career development.
Kyle Shanahan laid the foundation for Darnold, and Kevin O’Connell built upon it. The Vikings signed Darnold as a bridge for McCarthy, who they drafted to turn into their franchise quarterback. Mac Jones probably doesn’t have Darnold’s upside. Still, Minnesota could rely on him to make quality starts if he beats out McCarthy in camp.
It ultimately comes down to price with Mac Jones. The Vikings don’t want to overpay for a quarterback who can’t drive winning. However, they can’t let their quarterback situation deteriorate like it did last year. Trading conditional picks for Mac Jones may be the solution to their fatal flaw from last season.
