Kyler Murray took so long to sign with the Minnesota Vikings that people went crazy. Exhibit A: The Athletic’s Michael Silver started imagining Kevin O’Connell without his Vikings hoodie.
“[Pursuing Murray isn’t] a dip of the toe into the free-agency pool,” Silver wrote. “This was O’Connell, in a skin-tight Speedo, doing a double-flip off the high dive.”
Alrighty then.
The Arizona Cardinals waited until the start of the new league year yesterday to release Murray. Then he surveyed his options before signing with the Vikings. Still, it felt like he would eventually end up in Minnesota.
“There was a lot of interest in playing quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings,” O’Connell said after the Vikings signed Murray. O’Connell added that Minnesota spoke with many free-agent quarterbacks but landed on Murray, who grew up a Vikings fan.
Still, beyond his childhood fandom, it’s a testament to the Vikings’ culture that Murray ended up in Minnesota. The Cardinals are paying Murray $36 million in guaranteed money after cutting him, so he signed a one-year, veteran minimum deal ($1.3 million) with the Vikings.
An offset provision in his contract dictates that the Cardinals must pay him any guaranteed money he doesn’t make on his next contract. No team was going to pay Murray, who only played five games last year due to injury, more than the $37 million Arizona guaranteed him this season. Still, many teams would have signed him for $1.3 million, giving him ample options.
So, by signing a veteran minimum deal, Murray can stick it to the Cardinals while allowing Minnesota to build a super team around him. For the Vikings, who spent a league-high $348 million in free agency but started the season 4-8, it’s a way to add a two-time Pro Bowl quarterback while resetting the cap.
However, Murray’s sticker price is deceptive. If he doesn’t pan out, the Vikings can walk away free and clear. It’s a team-friendly, one-year deal.
But if he plays well, they must make a franchise-altering decision.
In hindsight, the Vikings should have held on to Sam Darnold. So, after watching him win the Super Bowl and J.J. McCarthy falter in his first season, would Minnesota really move on from Kyler Murray, even if they have mixed feelings about his play this year?
O’Connell wouldn’t commit to Murray as Minnesota’s QB1 after signing him. However, Murray will almost certainly beat out McCarthy for the starting job in camp. Murray isn’t a perfect system fit and has flaws on and off the field. Still, McCarthy was not ready to start last year, and there’s a lot of uncertainty about his future.
Murray threw for 3,851 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions two years ago, his last healthy season. He averages 3,998 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions per 17 games. Murray’s biggest issue is that he played only five games last year and eight in 2023.
That, and he had an “independent study” clause in his contract because he was playing video games instead of watching game tape.
Still, he’s Minnesota’s best option in what could be a make-or-break year for Kevin O’Connell. Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins are at the end of their careers. Jimmy Garoppolo has become a backup. Derek Carr retired. Murray, 28, is in his prime and throws a nice deep ball.
The Vikings will hire a new general manager to replace Kwesi Adofo-Mensah after the draft. That places O’Connell at a crossroads. Nail the quarterback situation and the draft, and he may have a hand in determining Minnesota’s next GM. Miss on either or both, and the Vikings might hire somebody who will eventually fire him.
In a world in which Sam Darnold didn’t win the Super Bowl this year, the Vikings may move on from Murray if he doesn’t look like a franchise quarterback. Minnesota has limited in-house options beyond McCarthy. Still, as O’Connell said, many quarterbacks want to play for the Vikings. They don’t need to fully commit to Murray if they have qualms about his play.
If Darnold hadn’t just won the Super Bowl, it would be easier to move on from an in-his-prime, former top pick who plays well but carries concerns. However, the Vikings are likely more locked in with Murray than they would have been otherwise.
The difference is that Sam Darnold is 6’3”, has stayed healthy, and is a more prototypical quarterback. Kyler Murray is 5’10”, has suffered myriad injuries, and breaks the mold. Just because Darnold left and won a Super Bowl doesn’t mean Murray would.
Murray is on a one-year, veteran minimum deal. However, there will be pressure on the Vikings to re-sign him, even if they have concerns about him after this season. Murray is Minnesota’s best option this season, but he may not be long-term. There’s no reason not to sign him this year, but extending Murray would be a franchise-altering decision.
The Vikings had to wait a while for Murray to sign, but the Kyler Murray saga has just begun. Imagination takes over when thinking about what’s next. Just try not to let your mind wander too far, lest you create a mental image that’s as permanent as guaranteed money on an extension.
