It might be funny to think that Carson Wentz is the first breadcrumb that tells us what the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback banquet will look like. Still, the best meals often start with a simple ingredient.
The Vikings can’t have a quarterback meltdown like their Week 13 game in Seattle. Justin Jefferson can’t be fighting to cross the 1,000-yard threshold at the end of the season. Minnesota can’t watch Sam Darnold win a Super Bowl and fail to find a quarterback solution this year.
So, Wentz is the starting point. He doesn’t present a high ceiling, but he sets a floor.
Kevin O’Connell can’t turn 33-year-old Carson Wentz into the player he may have been had he stayed healthy early in his career. However, Jefferson averaged 95.4 yards with Wentz under center. Extrapolate that over 18 games, and he would have had 1,717 yards last season.
That’s not how it would have played out, of course. Wentz only played five games before suffering a season-ending shoulder surgery, so it’s a small sample size. Still, Wentz’s issue is that he wantonly threw the ball into double coverage, not that he couldn’t get the ball out to Minnesota’s weapons.
The Vikings reportedly will bring Wentz back, but they need better options. Wentz offers limited upside, has suffered numerous injuries throughout his career, and is turnover-prone. He’s veteran competition for J.J. McCarthy, but the Vikings need other options.
Save for an unlikely Joe Burrow trade, Kyler Murray presents the best bridge option this season. The Vikings aren’t looking for a long-term fix right now. Instead, they want insurance if McCarthy doesn’t progress meaningfully.
Murray isn’t a long-term solution. However, he would probably beat McCarthy out for the job and can run an offense. Justin Jefferson will have a productive season with Murray under center. They don’t need to worry about Murray’s study habits or injury history if he’s on a team-friendly one-year deal.
The Vikings can get Kyler Murray on a veteran minimum salary ($1.3 million) because the Arizona Cardinals will pay him $36 million this year, even after cutting him. Murray has no incentive to take more money because it would offset the amount Arizona owes him. Therefore, landing Murray, who has multiple suitors, comes down to whether he buys into Kevin O’Connell’s coaching and Minnesota’s culture.
If Murray passes on Minnesota, McCarthy probably represents the most upside. The Vikings may have started him too early, before he developed his mechanics. Still, they must have options in case he turns out to be a bust or gets injured again. That means creating competition for Carson Wentz as the veteran backup.
The Vikings should avoid Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, who are at the end of their careers and come with baggage. Rodgers, 42, tends to demand everyone’s attention and would disrupt Minnesota’s culture. Signing Cousins, 37, would mean returning to the quarterback from whom the Vikings moved on in favor of McCarthy, only he’s older and less productive.
Instead, the Vikings should look at other mid-30s quarterbacks who would compete with Carson Wentz to set a floor in case McCarthy doesn’t develop. That means taking on a flawed player and hoping Kevin O’Connell would bring out the best in him.
Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 3,810 yards, with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2021. However, his productivity has rapidly declined since then. He’s a viable starter who played for Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, two O’Connell contemporaries, but he’ll only be as good as the team around him. Think of him as “Hot Kirk.”
The Vikings could try to coax Derek Carr out of retirement. However, that means working out a deal with the New Orleans Saints, who still have him under contract. Carr threw for 3,878 yards, with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions, two years ago. Still, injuries have forced him into retirement, and he’s less willing to stand in the pocket to make plays as he gets older.
There are other options. Joe Flacco, who’s 41. Geno Smith, who led the league with 17 interceptions last year. They could trade for Mac Jones, 27, but he’s going to be expensive for a borderline starter. Each has a downside, but could be a solution if they play well in O’Connell’s system.
Once the Vikings have determined which veteran they’re bringing in to compete with McCarthy, they should seek a project player with upside. Anthony Richardson is probably their best bet. O’Connell is a fan. Richardson also won’t cost much, and draft pundits compared him to Cam Newton coming out of college. He offers the Vikings another quarterback with upside if McCarthy is a bust.
Ultimately, the Vikings should recreate what they had with J.J. McCarthy, Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones. McCarthy was the young player with upside, Darnold was the bridge, and Jones was the project. It could look like Murray-Wentz-McCarthy, with Murray starting, Wentz providing a floor, and McCarthy as the project backup. It could also be McCarthy-Garoppalo-Richardson.
Regardless of how it plays out, the Vikings must prioritize Justin Jefferson in their decision-making. They should also provide their next general manager with quarterback options. There are still many unknowns, but Minnesota’s quarterback picture is getting clearer. Just follow the breadcrumbs.
