After a lost year, Kevin O’Connell wants to bring explosive plays back to the Minnesota Vikings offense. Fans saw what O’Connell’s offense could do with Sam Darnold at the helm in 2024, when long shots downfield helped Minnesota jump on its opponents and ride its defense to victory.
The game plan went awry when Darnold left for the Seattle Seahawks, and J.J. McCarthy was inaccurate during his first year as a starter. That made McCarthy the poster child for why things went differently in 2025 than in 2024. Still, it may not be the only explosive play O’Connell has been chasing.
Instead, the Vikings have made it clear they want a better run game. While O’Connell hasn’t said it publicly, he’s started to make those intentions clear with his offseason moves — and potentially a shocking move or two when the new league year begins next month.
Many believe that O’Connell sees the running game like a kid sees a plate of broccoli. When McCarthy struggled to operate his offense, there was an outcry for O’Connell to lean on the running game more, because they averaged 4.5 yards per attempt. However, O’Connell may not be seeking rushing yards in bulk. He just wants an effective run game.
The Vikings were a solid rushing team, but they struggled to create explosive plays. Pro Football Focus has a metric called “breakaway runs,” which are designed plays that gain 15 yards or more. Minnesota had just 14 breakaway runs as a team last season, and it felt like Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones were dragging a 10 lb. weight more than giving a defense something to worry about.
As the season progressed, it became clear that Mason was not giving the Vikings what they wanted. According to The Viking Age’s Adam Patrick, Mason had a 63.5% snap rate during the first seven weeks of the season. But his usage dropped to 29.4% from Weeks 8 to 16. Mason’s performance in pass protection may have also contributed to this. Still, it’s hard not to think the lack of explosive plays is part of the problem, based on some of the moves O’Connell has made.
Minnesota released Dalvin Cook following a 1,237-yard campaign in 2022. However, he logged just 27.8% of his rushing yardage on breakaway runs, dubbed by PFF as “breakaway percentage.” After logging 12 total breakaway runs during that year, the Vikings released him and targeted DeWayne McBride in the seventh round of the 2023 draft.
McBride is known for having a “starter’s grade” from recently fired general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. But he had the breakaway qualities the Vikings were searching for. In 2021, McBride finished second in the country with 26 breakaway runs behind Kenneth Walker III, and he finished third in 2022 with 25 breakaway runs. McBride also had a whopping 54% breakaway rate, but none of that translated to the NFL.
Alexander Mattison tried to fill the role in 2023, and the Vikings released him after logging seven breakaway runs and a 16.9% breakaway percentage. Aaron Jones came to Minnesota the following season, where his breakaway percentage had previously been around 25%. However, he failed to reach 20% in each of his two seasons with the Vikings.
Even Mason could reel off a long run before coming to Minnesota with a 36.9% breakaway percentage. However, he couldn’t replicate that success in O’Connell’s offense.
The lack of explosive runs on the ground could also be chalked up to strong offensive line play or O’Connell’s need for someone to step up in pass protection. But that may have taken care of that by hiring Frank Smith as assistant head coach.
The former offensive coordinator under Mike McDaniel with the Miami Dolphins, Smith led offenses that ranked 26th in rushing attempts since 2022. But they were also one of the most efficient ground games in the NFL, ranking sixth with 4.6 yards per carry.
De’Von Achane also fueled that success. Achane led the NFL with 24 breakaway runs and a 36.9% breakaway percentage last year, making him one of the top big-play threats in football. It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins got mileage out of a 31-year-old Raheem Mostert for an NFL-high 18 touchdowns in 2023, proving he can have success with different types of backs.
Minnesota could see Mason in that Mostert role. But Mostert also had 14 breakaway runs and a 31.5% breakaway percentage in 2023. If O’Connell wants something more explosive, he could move on from Mason this offseason, which would save $2.9 million in a post-June 1 cut (h/t Over The Cap) and really put the offseason plan into motion.
The first thing the Vikings could do is call the Dolphins about Achane’s status. Jeff Hafley took the job to replace McDaniel last month and has been doing his best to turn Miami into a warmer, more fun version of Green Bay. They have cut Bradley Chubb and Tyreek Hill, and are potentially trading Minkah Fitzpatrick.
With Smith’s previous relationship with Achane, the Vikings could jumpstart their ground game with a proven commodity. Still, there’s also a chance the Dolphins could hang onto Achane and leave the Vikings looking somewhere else.
Thankfully, the free-agent class is strong at running back. Breece Hall may be the top target after finishing fifth with a 36.8% breakaway percentage and a 36% breakaway percentage for his career. However, his past with the new offensive line coach, Keith Carter, may prevent that from happening.
Kenneth Walker III is also another option to consider, with a 36.3% breakaway rate last season and 34.4% career breakaway percentage. But he won’t be cheap after winning Super Bowl MVP last year and potentially a $9 million annual market value according to Spotrac.
Then there’s the draft. Drafting a running back in the first round is enough to make an analytics guy’s head explode, but Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love could be worth the investment. He finished last season with 23 breakaway runs and a 34.4% breakaway rate for the Fighting Irish and is the one blue-chip prospect in a draft class full of good but not great talent.
Signing a big-name free agent or trading up for Love would be an aggressive way to solve the problem. But showing aggressiveness is something the Vikings need to do if they believe their championship window is open. For that, they’ll need to bring explosive plays back to their offense, including finding a way to provide a more explosive running game.
