This past weekend, Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith made an important announcement. Smith has established himself as one of the greatest players in franchise history, and the possibility of a 15th season has been hanging in the balance. But this wasn’t about his retirement or his decision to make his return.
This was about flag football.
Smith was announced as an injury replacement for Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James at the Fanatics Flag Football Classic last weekend. While the rest of the country held their breath at Joe Burrow risking every ligament in his body for this tournament, Vikings fans took notice, believing this was a sign that Smith’s competitive juices were still flowing.
Getting Harrison Smith back to the Vikings defense would be a boost in an offseason that has been about improving the team without the splashy, ill-fated signings that headlined free agency a year ago. Still, even if Smith returns, he won’t be the ultimate solution for a safety room that needs help.
We should first reiterate that Smith is one of the greatest Vikings of all time. His 39 career interceptions are fourth in franchise history and the most among active players. His 859 solo tackles rank first in franchise history. He’s a versatile chess piece that Brian Flores can use in coverage or throw at the opposing quarterback, and he’s a leader in the locker room that can not be replaced.
Smith has established himself as the most popular Hitman since Bret Hart was rocking pink and black tights in the 1990s. Still, he’s not the player he once was.
Last season was the fourth straight year that Smith posted a Pro Football Focus grade under 70. While that number represents a starting-caliber player, the bigger concern is his 793 snaps, which were his lowest total since he was limited to 529 snaps due to a broken foot during the 2013 season.
The way last year played out for Smith is also concerning. He battled an illness during training camp and didn’t make his season debut until a Week 3 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. While he returned early in the season, he didn’t reach 60 snaps until a Week 8 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. He didn’t play 70 snaps until a Week 11 loss to the Chicago Bears.
Smith’s PFF grades also tell an interesting story. Smith posted a PFF grade over 70 just twice in his first 10 games and ranked 34th among qualifying safeties from his Week 3 debut against Cincinnati to a Week 13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
PFF grades are subjective, and coaching staffs often dismiss them. Still, Smith rebounded to post an 80.3 overall grade in the final five weeks, which ranked eighth among qualifying safeties. But just like many dismissed J.J. McCarthy for facing the “Ready for Cancun” tour of opponents, Smith’s play could have been due to facing a string of teams either eliminated from contention or resting their starters for a playoff game.
That leaves the Vikings with a dilemma. They would obviously welcome Smith back if he decides to play another season. Still, they also probably know they can’t rely on him to save the secondary.
Josh Metellus will have a key role, but ideally, he’s bouncing around the defense rather than being stuck on the back end. Tavierre Thomas is more of a special-teams player. Jay Ward and Theo Jackson could be in the same class as players who are good enough to make the team but not good enough to hold down a starting role.
The Vikings probably aren’t going to add a free-agent safety while they wait for Smith’s decision. Free agents may also not want to sign, knowing Smith could return at any moment. But Minnesota could tap into this year’s draft, which has three safeties in the top 25 players on the NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board.
While Ohio State’s Caleb Downs (No. 8) is likely out of reach, the Vikings could take Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman (No. 19) or Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (No. 25) with their first-round pick in a draft that is light on talent at the premium positions. Although they could also wait until later in the draft, it would give them a succession plan for Smith and also a player who could be an insurance policy if Smith’s legs can’t carry him to play at the level that everyone has expected.
That’s not a knock on Smith, who will likely be in consideration for a spot in Canton when his career is over. It’s also not a case against him coming back, because whatever safety they bring in must learn the intricacies of Brian Flores’s defense. However, it’s a reminder that Smith may not be able to carry the defense on his own, and the Vikings need to start thinking beyond his retirement decision to maintain their high standards next season and beyond.
