A huge opportunity in the Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff is right there for Zebby Matthews to take. Injuries to Taj Bradley and Mick Abel have created ample opportunity for Matthews to reclaim a spot in the starting rotation.
Minnesota’s starting pitching depth looked like a strength entering 2026, even after Pablo López’s injury. They had an established arm in Joe Ryan and major league-ready prospects like Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and Connor Prielipp. Zebby Matthews looked like he’d be in the starting rotation at the start of the season. The 25-year-old came into 2026 with a 5.92 ERA. However, he has shown flashes of talent, thanks mainly to a 95.8 MPH fastball.
However, Matthews had a 5.73 ERA in 7 Spring Training starts. Meanwhile, great starts from Bradley and Abel meant that Matthews had to start the season in Triple-A.
Matthews’ struggles played a part in starting the season in St. Paul. But it also had more to do with the team’s pitching depth, leaving a major league-caliber starter to begin in the minor leagues. Matthews’ situation ends up looking familiar when you compare it to another one of his teammates in the Twins rotation.
Bailey Ober found himself in a similar situation with the Twins in 2023. Behind a deep starting staff that season, Ober began that campaign in St. Paul. He appeared in 5 starts in Triple-A that season, producing a 2.38 ERA before reaching the majors again.
Through a 3.43 ERA over 26 starts in 2023, Ober was a crucial part of a Twins rotation that finished with a 3.82 ERA that was second-best in all of baseball. Ober established that he was a key part of Minnesota’s pitching plans. Similarly, behind a surprisingly deep Twins rotation in 2026, Matthews is ready to run through the trail Ober had used in Minnesota.
Minnesota’s rotation this year is the best collection of its starting pitching since 2023, even if the current group doesn’t have the same high-end talent. The Twins’ starting pitchers have a 3.88 ERA this year, placing them among the nine best rotations in MLB. Matthews can help the Twins leverage their starting pitching depth, earning himself an opportunity to help the group remain among the best in baseball, as Ober did in 2023. Even though Matthews and Ober are different pitchers, there are plenty of similarities between the pair.
The two pitches share some similarities and follow a mold Minnesota has used in developing young arms. The Twins have prioritized developing taller college pitchers, even those without a strong track record or big-school pedigree. Their longer frames and unique arm slots rob hitters of crucial reaction time to a pitch, making it harder for them to create hard contact. That contact usually leads to weak fly balls from attacking high in the strike zone. Ober was the team’s first success story in this category.
Minnesota took Ober, who’s 6’9”, in the 12th round out of College of Charleston in 2017. He has maintained consistent success in the majors despite an average fastball velocity of 91.4 MPH. However, Ober has an average extension of 7.2 in. from the pitching rubber, ranking in the 98th percentile among MLB pitchers in 2026. That extension can lead to swing-and-misses and weak contact.
Ober’s 86.4 MPH average exit velocity from hitters ranks in the 86th percentile according to Baseball Savant. His 67.4 percent fly ball rate is well above the 55.8 percent league average.
Similarly, the Twins took Zebby Matthews in the 8th round out of Western Carolina in 2022. The 6’5” Matthews doesn’t have Ober’s extension, but he’s still above league average. Matthew’s 6.6-inch average extension for Matthews in 2025 ranked in the 60th percentile of MLB arms last season. His 65.3 percent career ground ball rate puts him in a similar stratosphere as Ober. The area to continue developing is creating weaker contact with Matthews, owning an 89.2 MPH average exit velocity.
Just like Ober, Matthews has an opportunity to become a productive pitcher for the Twins and never give up his spot in Minnesota’s rotation. Despite being similar prototypes and common paths, there is an opportunity for Matthews to build off his velocity, something Ober hasn’t been able to develop fully.
Matthews posted a 96.2 MPH average fastball velocity in 2025, ranking in the 80th percentile among MLB pitchers last season. However, he didn’t maintain that velocity in his season debut against the Miami Marlins on Thursday.
His average 4-seam fastball velocity was 94.8 MPH, down 1.4 MPH from his average last season. Still, Matthews is throwing his fastball harder than Ober has in his career. Matthews presents a unique opportunity for the Twins to have a pitcher with a similar frame to Ober, whose fastball can generate swings and misses on speed alone.
That doesn’t mean Matthews only relies on speed. For example, Matthews generated ample weak contact against Miami, with an 84.2 MPH average exit velocity at the start. The Twins will take seven innings from a starter anyway they get them, but Matthews is at his best when he’s throwing with velocity. Still, Matthews’ true test is to stay on an Ober-like trajectory?
Despite the lack of velocity, Ober uses his extension and +9 run value from his pitch arsenal to generate a lot of soft contact. Matthews must improve his -11 run value in 2025 to continue making big-league starts.
High heat is valuable in generating swings and misses. Big-league hitters can eventually time up speed if it doesn’t have enough movement. Still, taking a page out of Ober’s playbook and developing some kind of run on his fastball can put him on the trajectory to being a relied-upon starting pitcher in Minnesota.
In 2023, Minnesota’s pitching staff was one of the deepest in recent memory. However, their current collection of arms can become comparable. Even though the Twins didn’t have Ober on the Opening Day roster in 2023, he still became a huge part of their success that season. Fast forward to 2026, and Matthews is in a similar situation to Ober again.
Zebby Matthews didn’t make the Opening Day roster, but he still can be a key member of the team’s starting rotation. As long as Matthews continues to have zip on the fastball and finds a way to get even a little more stuff on his pitches, he can become a mainstay in the Twins rotation for seasons to come, just like Ober.
