There was a constant theme in at least five of the Green Bay Packers’ seven losses this year: This team could not resist self-inflicted mistakes, often in the worst moments.
Going through the playoffs is always a gauntlet, regardless of your seed. Having the No. 7 seed like the Packers puts you further behind the eight ball.
Can the Packers get out of their own way and make a playoff run?
When you look at some of the numbers, they don’t seem terrible at first glance and have even improved from the midway point of the season.
Take the pre-snap penalties, for example. At the halfway point of the season, the Packers were in the top three in that category — and not top three in a good way. Green Bay finished the year with 40 pre-snap penalties, which had them towards the middle of the pack, tied for 15th.
However, just looking at the number of pre-snap penalties ignores their timing.
Two weeks ago, with Green Bay trying to put up a last effort fight against the Baltimore Ravens, Karl Brooks was flagged for a neutral zone infraction on a critical fourth-and-one. Two weeks before that, the Packers were flagged for multiple personal foul penalties in a loss to the Denver Broncos. One of them was Kingsley Enagbare‘s inexplicable hit on the punter, who was in a defenseless position in the middle of the field.
But if it’s volume you want, they can do that, too. In their first loss of the season back in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay was flagged a whopping 14 times.
The Packers have been quite good with ball security this year, yet the turnovers have mostly occurred in brutal spots as well. Green Bay had the third-fewest this year with 13, but most of those giveaways came in the worst possible spots.
Some examples: Jordan Love‘s interception against Cleveland in the fourth quarter. The strip sack the following week, with less than a minute left in the first half against the Dallas Cowboys, which led to a touchdown. Josh Jacobs‘ fumble in Chicago when the Packers were inside the five-yard line, poised to build on a lead. Love’s interception late in the third quarter of a 7-6 game against the Carolina Panthers when he lofted it into triple coverage.
Now the Packers will get ready to face a Chicago Bears team that is No. 1 in the NFL with 33 takeaways and No. 1 in the NFL with 23 interceptions. So, obviously, the turnover differential in this game will be critical. If the Packers can’t mitigate Chicago’s strength and at least keep the penalties under control, Green Bay can absolutely win this game, perhaps decisively. They just have to stop being their own worst enemy.
If the Packers were to get by the Bears, they’d face the Seattle Seahawks regardless of what else happens in the NFC. For all the great things the Seahawks did during the regular season, they were a giveaway machine. Seattle finished second in the NFL with 28 giveaways this year, something that would have any defense licking its chops. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been the most prolific in that department; they tied for the fourth-fewest with 14.
If you were told the Packers either won or tied in the turnover battle and committed fewer penalties, you’d feel good about their chances against most teams. Of course, the rub is, how realistic is that?
Matt LaFleur has harped on the importance of avoiding dumb penalties and egregious mistakes. He did again, following Green Bay’s win over Chicago at Lambeau Field, where Keisean Nixon was flagged twice for stupid penalties. What LaFleur said after that game also applies to this week:
You’re talking about a rivalry game, an NFC North Division rival. It was chippy last time we played, so I would say that’s a pretty good indicator of how it’s going to be and we’ve just got to make sure we maintain our poise. I’m sure they’re saying the exact same thing I’m saying.
If the Packers don’t beat themselves, they can absolutely make some noise in the playoffs despite all their injuries. But if the season ends earlier than both fans and the team want, turnovers and bad penalties will likely be the culprits.
