Three of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ biggest needs this offseason are size, feel for the game, and ball-handling ability. Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson addresses those three needs and could be available when the Wolves pick at 28
Background
Joshua Jefferson is a 22.6-year-old forward from Las Vegas. At the Draft Combine, he measured 6’7.75” without shoes, 246 lbs, with a 6’10.75” wingspan.
247sports ranked Jefferson as a three-star prospect coming out of high school. Despite winning the Nevada Boys Athlete of the Year and MaxPreps Player of the Year, Jefferson didn’t create a lot of recruiting buzz. According to 247sports, Jefferson only received offers from Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M.
Jefferson committed to Randy Bennett and Saint Mary’s University but didn’t have much of a role in his freshman season, averaging just 8.1 minutes and 2.2 points per game. However, Jefferson started all 26 games in his sophomore season, where he averaged 10.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists for a Saint Mary’s team that won the WCC regular season title and the conference tournament.
While Jefferson had a successful sophomore season, a season-ending lower-body injury cut it short. Despite the risk of transferring while injured, Jefferson entered the portal. After receiving interest from Virginia, TCU, and Michigan, he committed to Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger.
Jefferson was an extremely productive player at Iowa State. He averaged 14.7 points, 7.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game in his two seasons. Jefferson was a consensus All-American in his Senior season and earned All-Big 12 honors in both of his seasons with the Cyclones.
The data
Joshua Johnson drove winning in multiple ways at Iowa State. According to Bart Torvik, Jefferson was one of three players to post a box-plus-minus (BPM) of 10 or higher over the past two seasons, joining Yaxel Lenderborg and Oscar Cluff.
Jefferson is also one of 5 players to post a career defensive rebounding rate of 20% or better, an assist rate of 20% or better, a block rate of 2.5% or better, and a steal rate of 3% or better. One of those players, and a very reasonable comparison for Jefferson, is former Timberwolves forward Kyle Anderson. 
Offensive fit
Jefferson is a cerebral passer for his size. He’s a high-feel player who can:
- Find active cutters from the perimeter when the floor is spaced, or on post-ups.
- Be a connector who can find his frontcourt teammate, making high-low passes.
- Operate in the short roll, where he can spray the ball back out to the perimeter or to the dunker spot.
- Use his own dribble to get downhill and find others.
Jefferson’s creativity and adjustment within his playmaking are elite traits. It allowed Iowa State to run actions off the ball, such as flares and designed high-lows, and his timing within possessions and ability to pass players open is incredible. Ultimately, he makes his teammates better.
In addition to his passing, the Cyclones trusted Jefferson to handle the ball. He operated in Zoom handoffs and big-big pick-and-rolls, while also occasionally initiating the early offense in Ames.
At 6’9” in shoes, Jefferson could be considered a 4/5 tweener in the NBA. However, he’s more comfortable playing alongside another frontcourt player. Last season at Iowa St., Jefferson played most of his minutes alongside another big man, so it should not be a drastic adjustment in the NBA. He just needs to find more successful ways to score.
Jefferson lived around the rim in his collegiate career. According to Hoop-Explorer, Jefferson shot 64% on field goals at the rim or in touch/floater range this past season at Iowa St.
At 6’9” and with average athletic traits, Jefferson may struggle around the rim in the NBA. His stocky frame may allow him to at least work through contact, but he shot just 51.7% on two-point field goals his senior year at Iowa St.
Jefferson will also need to improve his three-point jumper to become a more dynamic offensive player. Jefferson didn’t shy away from taking threes last season, attempting 3.1 per game and 5.9 per 100 possessions. However, he only shot 34.5% from three. Over his career, Jefferson attempted just 2.0 three-pointers per game and 5.0 per 100 possessions, shooting 31.5%
Jefferson has solid shooting mechanics and relied heavily on above-the-break threes this past season. Still, he has a ways to go to be a reliable shooter.
Defensive Impact
Joshua Jefferson was a steals machine in his two seasons in Ames, averaging 2.1 per game his Junior season and 1.6 per game in his senior season.
He projects well as a low man, operating from the corner. He’s not an explosive athlete, but is quick enough to move along the baseline. The question that remains with Jefferson is whether he will be good enough of a defender to hold his own on the perimeter if he is playing the 4 at the NBA level. His rim protection and size are not good enough to play the 5. Therefore, he’ll need to be flexible.
Part of it could come down to Jefferson slimming down from 246 lbs, a touch, to improve mobility.
Jefferson was a great rebounder, posting a defensive rebound rate of 20% or higher in all three seasons as a full-time starter.
It’s hard to project Jefferson’s defense because defensive playmaking and his defensive rebounding boosted many of his metrics. Regardless, his production offers a baseline to work with.
How does he fit with the Timberwolves?
Joshua Jefferson would fit in seamlessly with the Timberwolves. His offensive role could mirror what they did with Kyle Anderson. By allowing Jefferson to operate as a screener and ball-handler, his passing would be the perfect fit to counter teams putting two on Anthony Edwards on ball screens.
Drafting older prospects can be risky for perennial playoff teams. If the player is not ready, the pick can be a waste. However, Jefferson’s specialized skill set for Minnesota’s rotation makes it easy to pencil him in as a fantastic schematic fit.
The Timberwolves desperately need more ball handlers. Adding one with significant size over their in-house options, as well as someone who can bring a change of pace to the frontcourt through his passing feel, would be an incredibly valuable pick at 28.
