After a 113-96 shellacking at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Denver Nuggets found themselves down 2-1 in the first round of a playoff series they were 4-1 favorites to win.
To make matters worse, Jaden McDaniels publicly called out the entire Nuggets team, labeling them as “bad defenders” after Game 2, and backed that up by scoring 20 points on thirteen shots with just one free throw. Ayo Dosunmu also poured in 25 points, and six total Wolves players scored double figures.
It’s left Denver in an eerily similar place to the Los Angeles Lakers a season ago, as a heavily favored three seed that falls 2-1 to a scrappy six-seed that seemingly has figured out how to render a generational superstar ineffective — Nikola Jokic this season, and Luka Doncic a year ago. The Nuggets are now facing an uphill climb to advance, and it’s hard to see what levels they have to pull to regain control of the series.
David Adleman elaborated on what the Nuggets need to do in Game 4 on Friday, after the Nuggets practiced in Minnesota.
“We have to have a better start,” he said. “The guys know that we talked about it.”
He would also add that the Nuggets need to play with more physicality, especially on offense. Adleman said Denver’s screen game, in particular, had been lacking. He attributed it to the Nuggets not adjusting well to Minnesota’s playoff physicality and to the extra leeway the refs gave. Essentially, Adleman’s solution and adjustments were to get back to playing offense the way the Nuggets had in the regular season, when they had the number 1 offensive rating at 122.9.
While, in theory, getting back to their basics should help, the Nuggets have a few things to lean on. They are shooting just 30.3% from three after leading the league in the regular season at 39.6%. If the Nuggets were shooting that percentage in the playoffs, that would equal 3.1 more three pointers made per game, or 9 points. The increased threat from three should cause Minnesota’s defense to back off from helping in the paint, opening more things up.
However, the analytics indicate that’s not likely to happen. In the three games against the Wolves, 36.3% of their three-point attempts are considered open or wide open, meaning no defender is within 4 feet of the shot. In the regular season, this percentage was at 36.1%. That suggests that if they were to hit their threes, it wouldn’t necessarily change how they’re defended, since the same percentage of them are open in the playoffs as in the regular season.
If they hit them, it would help keep them in games, but at least this data suggests that the Wolves are playing the shooters outside of Jokic pretty similarly to how teams have covered them all season. About a third of the time, they are left open, and if those were to start to fall, the Wolves would likely live with that result.
The screen physicality comments by Adleman are harder to flesh out. The Nuggets excel by getting Jokic the ball at the three-point line or the free-throw line, then running off ball screens and drag screens to open up shooters. Arguably, the Nuggets have not done as good a job of running these actions. Still, the Wolves have also been defending them at a high level.
For example, when Murray looks to screen a defender to open up an action for Braun or Cam Johnson, the reality is that he’s screening either Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, or Ayo Dosunmu, while Jaden McDaniels guards him.
At least in these cases, the Wolves can easily switch on the screen, press up on Braun or Johnson, and stick to Murray. That renders it essentially useless regardless of its physicality. The other strategy is to just fight through the off-ball screen with Dosunmu and DiVincenzo, who have proven to be well above average.
It’s been the same ineffectiveness with the traditional pick and roll and inverted pick and roll that Murray runs with Jokic. As Jokic screens McDaniels in a traditional pick-and-roll, McDaniels has been able to use his length and size to simply slip right past Jokic, as Gobert drops, leading to Murray getting pushed further away from the basket and the Wolves leaving Jokic somewhat open from three, in which he’s shooting 20.8%.
Conversely, when a guard screens Gobert, he has been able to drop under them and then stick to Jokic, again daring Jokic to shoot from three. While the idea of Jokic hitting more shots could certainly change if the Wolves defend him, at this point, it seems less about the screen and more about Denver’s desperation to make open threes, to at least tempt the Wolves to adjust.
All this isn’t even bringing up the defense that has allowed the Wolves to lead the playoffs in assists through the first three games and lead the playoffs in layups made (19.7) and attempted (29.0). 11.7 of these made layups are coming in the set offense. Defensively, the Nuggets are short on out-of-their-ears, the rim protection has been below average at best, and they don’t seem to have the personnel to make many meaningful adjustments, especially if Aaron Gordon misses more time.
Overall, it seems like the Nuggets are in a tough situation. Getting back to their regular-season basics and hitting shots won’t hurt their chances of making a comeback. Still, it feels like a team that is, for the most part, out of adjustments, with the Wolves having them figured out after three games. Their top offense has been rendered mortal, their MVP is being dared to shoot and not making them, and their defense is just not enough to slow down a Wolves offense that is passing the ball and diving at the rim.
Last season, the ESPN experts unanimously picked the Lakers to knock out the Wolves in a 3-6 matchup, and this year they did the same for the Nuggets. And after three games, both three-seeded teams are down 2-1 and appear to be grasping for anything to show some success and get back into the series. With Game 4 just hours away, the Wolves are in control and look to pull the upset out again.
