If you’re looking for hope in this moment, with the Minnesota Timberwolves down 3-2 to a superior San Antonio Spurs team, think back to the 10:21 minute in the third quarter of Game 7 in Denver two years ago. The Denver Nuggets are up 58-38 on Minnesota. ESPN had given the Wolves a 2.6% chance of winning. Lose, and they go home.
The Nuggets are the defending champions. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world. The air is thin 5280 feet above sea level. The Timberwolves had taken the first two in Denver, only to blow three straight and cough up a 3-2 series lead. Historically, the team that wins Game 5 in a 2-2 series advances 80% of the time. The Wolves bucked the odds that night.
Knowing what we know now, the Timberwolves probably would have kept that core together. They would have run it back with Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, hoping to avenge the series loss as favorites over Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks. However, the league’s new “second-apron rule” forced the Wolves to trade Towns, and they have been chasing a finals berth ever since.
Had the Timberwolves lost to Denver in the first round this year, we may have seen the last vestiges of that team from two years ago disappear. Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Naz Reid would likely remain. However, the Wolves may have moved on from the other principles.
The Timberwolves got Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo back in the Towns trade. Randle may be playing his way out of Minnesota, and DiVincenzo’s injury will sideline him for a long time. Perhaps they move on from Chris Finch, the winningest coach in Wolves history, after a first-round exit. Tim Connelly could have sold high on Rudy Gobert after he gommaged Jokic. Mike Conley, 38, might retire after this season.
Suddenly, the world around Edwards, McDaniels, and Reid would evaporate. Connelly and Minnesota’s front office would try to overhaul the team in the offseason, aiming to remain competitive enough to keep Edwards in town. They’d build another structure immediately after detonating the old one to ensure that first-round exits remain a thing of the past.
However, they got past Denver. Now, San Antonio is up 3-2 entering Friday’s game at Target Center, but the Timberwolves have been here before. They had to defend home court against the Nuggets, then win the elimination game on the road. Perhaps this is the Denver series again, only against Victor Wembanyama and the fledgling Spurs. Or maybe San Antonio is another Texas team standing in the way of the Wolves’ run to the finals.
One loss stands between the Wolves and an even weirder potential overhaul. It would be unwise to completely dismantle a team that eliminated Jokic’s Nuggets this year. However, this series highlights the gap that exists between Minnesota (+15000 to win a championship) and San Antonio (+350, or wager $100 to win $350) – let alone the Oklahoma City Thunder (-165, or wager $165 to win $100).
The Wolves may not be able to make up the gap between them and the contenders in one offseason. Still, they can stand pat and hope that a healthier Edwards, Reid, and Ayo Dosunmu carry them further next year. They could also try to trade Randle for Kyrie Irving or a few young players and draft assets.
However, Minnesota is likely to retain Finch, who’s taken them to the Western Conference Finals twice. They probably stick with Gobert, 33, until Joan Beringer or another big man is ready to replace him. Dosumnu can take over at point guard, and Reid might be able to move into the starting lineup. Retaining the infrastructure is important, even if they eventually must overhaul the roster.
Or the Timberwolves could make this easy. Defend home court on Friday and steal one in San Antonio, as they did in Denver two years ago, and then run it back. The odds are against them advancing. However, they were also against the Wolves when they were down 20 at the 10:21 mark in the third quarter two years ago. Most of this core has been here before. Now, they have to prove they can do it again.
