Bailey Ober experienced a Twilight Zone-like time loop in St. Louis on Sunday.
A year after giving up eight runs and recording four outs against the Kansas City Royals in his first start a year ago, Ober gave up eight runs and produced eight outs on the other side of Missouri. The St. Louis Cardinals tagged him with a pair of three-run home runs in their 9-2 victory, completing an opening series sweep.
“There’s not anything in particular to worry about. It’s a long year. We played three games,” Rocco Baldelli said reassuringly. “It wasn’t a good three games, but we got some good baseball ahead, and hopefully it starts tomorrow.”
Ober arrived in St. Louis with a virus and was bedridden on Friday. He received an IV on Saturday but felt okay to pitch on Sunday. However, he’s not using the virus as an excuse. Ober also started the season with a lousy outing in Kansas City, only to recover and win his next four decisions, holding batters to a .136 batting average in April. Like last year, he won’t have a 27.00 ERA all season.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.
The Minnesota Twins were 70-53 before Jorge Alcala blew a four-run lead and potential series sweep in Texas, starting a 12-27 freefall. Minnesota lost a double-digit lead in the Wild Card standings and finished with 82 wins, missing the playoffs.
In response, Rocco Baldelli changed Minnesota’s spring training regimen. Daily practice sessions began earlier, and position players work together on the same field more frequently. Veterans made long trips to Dunedin and Clearwater, Fla., all to promote team camaraderie and develop fundamentals.
There was promise of ownership change and a higher payroll, allowing the Twins to add to the trade deadline. The Pohlads signed off on a small payroll bump at the end of the year, allowing Minnesota to add depth going into the season. Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis started camp healthy, and FanGraphs projected the Twins to have the league’s No. 1 bullpen.
However, things felt different as the season neared. Justin Ishbia pulled his bid to buy the Twins and will purchase the Chicago White Sox instead. Minnesota’s payroll increased from $129 to $145 million, but that’s still down from $156 million when they won in the playoffs in 2023. The Twins’ lack of depth hurt them at the end of last season, which ties directly to payroll.
Furthermore, Royce Lewis injured his hamstring in spring training, echoing his injury issues at the start of last season. Brock Stewart, Brooks Lee, and Michael Tonkin also will start the year on the injured list. Duran’s velocity continues to drop, which may affect Minnesota’s bullpen projections. Throw in that the Twins have lost seven straight games going back to last season, and it’s fair to feel a sense of dread three games into the season.
Still, there’s no reason to disregard the season, even though the team has given fans a reason to worry. One way to think about the long season is if the Twins go 70-53 in their next 123 games, they’ll be 70-56 and only have to go 20-16 to finish with 90 wins. However, they have only started 0-3 six times in their 65-year history. The last time they did was the “total system failure” 2016 season when they lost 103 games and fired Terry Ryan. Paul Molitor only lasted two seasons after that.
Are the Twins inevitably going to lose 100 games this year? No. However, this season is already starting to feel more like 2022 or last year than 2023.
Cutting payroll hurts the product. The Twins need depth.
Injuries are also hampering them. Minnesota isn’t the same team without Lewis, and Lee is a promising prospect. Stewart is part of why FanGraphs projected them to have the best bullpen. Duran is more likely to get players out when he’s throwing above 100 mph, and Tonkin provides relief depth.
The Twins are reportedly $425 million in debt. Television revenues are likely an essential factor in their cash flow, and they left Comcast after they took them off Xfinity last year. However, another ownership group may see the momentum the team generated in 2023 and try to capture it again by investing in the team instead of cutting payroll.
Until then, everyone in Twins Territory will reside in the Twilight Zone. Will the Pohlads eventually sell? If they do, how will they feel about Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli if this team finishes around .500 or worse this year? Will the new ownership group spend immediately and then become discouraged if the team loses money?
Minnesota’s narrative this season will be how much will change in the next calendar year. The Twins have minimal control over who emerges as a potential owner and if they’ll be good stewards of the franchise. However, they likely won’t change the roster or management if the team wins. It starts with getting right against the Chicago White Sox, who won 41 games last year.
The Twins exist in between an evident binary. Are they the team that started 70-53 last year? Or the one that finished 12-27?
Welcome to the Twilight Zone.
