Who won the draft?

It’s pretty clear that when it comes to predicting the outcomes of draft prospects, no one has the market cornered. Prediction is a messy business, and it sometimes feel like prognosticators can get it wrong just as often as they get it right.

Still, we know that the consensus board does a pretty good job at not only predicting the draft but evaluating that talent. Individual experts often get it wrong, but the consensus of experts do not often make missteps. In 2014, the consensus boards beat the NFL and a good chunk of experts when it came to predicting player performance.

So, why not let it grade your draft?

By assigning pick value to each rank and subtracting it from the actual value of the picks used to select players, we can create pretty good approximate grades that—while not accounting for positional need or scheme fit—give us a good idea who did the best job of acquiring value.

The biggest problem with this approach is that it hurts those with the number one overall pick, because the most valuable player they can get earns them zero points; all they can do is avoid value loss.

That’s not a big sticking point with me, however, as one should expect to get the best player with the first pick. No one gets gold stars for doing what they were supposed to do. And as you’ll see, the Cleveland Browns more than made up for that disadvantage.

Here’s who generated the most value from their pick slot:

The Vikings are perennial favorites with this method, going all the way back to 2014. They consistently place in the top three of these rankings and place first once again this year. They make almost all of this value with second-round selections, with headliners like Eric Kendricks, Mackensie Alexander and this year, Dalvin Cook.

In this case, the Vikings didn’t only do well because of that second-round pick. Out of 11 draft picks, the Vikings gained value on nine of them, only missing out with Ben Gedeon and Rodney Adams.

Subjectively, I would argue that the Cleveland Browns had the best draft and placing second here is a good argument for their overall value. Value aside, however, they nailed positions they needed while remaining patient throughout the draft, not just acquiring three first-round picks, but the quarterback they likely wanted all along in the second round.

The Chicago Bears had a historically poor draft, not only losing significant value in drafting Mitch Trubisky second overall but giving up opportunities to make up for the pick by only selecting four more times… and overdrafting on three of those four occasions.

The Chiefs didn’t fare too well either, and didn’t make a single value-positive pick (unlike the Bears, who at least gained value with Eddie Jackson). The closest the Chiefs came to achieving value was the selection of Kareem Hunt, who was only slightly overdrafted—and in my opinion was underrated by the consensus board.

I’m sure they won’t care if it turns out that Patrick Mahomes is a solid quarterback and Kareem Hunt can shoulder the load, but it does mean they probably reached.

Here are the three-year rankings (2015-2017), where the Vikings once again are overwhelming favorites. It may not have resulted in a playoff win, but it at least means the Vikings are good at selecting players that people think are good.

Arif Hasan

Arif Hasan has written for sites all across the internet and his work has been featured in the Athletic, Pro Football Network, Star Tribune, LA Times, Forbes, SB Nation, the Bleacher Report and MSNBC. He currently also writes for the Wide Left Substack. You can find him on twitter at @ArifHasanNFL.

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