Timberwolves

FAKLIS: How the Timberwolves Can Finish the Season on a Good Note

(photo credit: Jim Faklis)

Historically, the All-Star game has served as a good point of reflection. The Timberwolves needed a chance for that.

The game hasn’t been the true halfway point of the regular season in years – the Wolves have already played 61 games this year and generally play well over 50 games before a break- but the time of the season is less important than the break itself.

But while the players are off doing their own thing – All-Star break, vacationing, parenting, etc. – basketball is still on their mind. And while us writers have had less to talk about over the past week, it’s still heavy on our minds as well.

Wolves fans have seen it all this year. They’ve experienced good wins, terrible losses, and stretches of both great and terrible defense. They have a great record against Western Conference playoff hopefuls, but a terrible record against the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

But as up and down as the season has been, they’re still on track to make the playoffs this season, and to finish with the best record the team has had since the oft-discussed 2003-04 season.

Despite the shaky defense and the occasionally stagnant offense – though it’s steadily held in the top five in offensive rating most of the season – this season has been a success.

But in order to keep homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, things are going to have to go well. Their schedule gets tough at the beginning of March, and the inconsistencies defensively over the past month are specifically concerning with that in mind.

It’ll take a multitude of big and little things to keep the Wolves near the top. Health is a big one, as is the success (or lack thereof) of the competing Western Conference opponents.

But the Wolves will mostly control their own destiny on the court. Here are some ways they can make it a success story:

1. The success of Andrew Wiggins

As expected, Andrew Wiggins got paid a massive contract this past summer. His ability to score, improved handle and expected-to-improve jumper and defense were reason enough for someone to sign him, so Tom Thibodeau decided to pull the trigger.

So far – perhaps just as expected as the contract itself – it’s come with a mixed bag of results.

To start the season, Butler was playing a bit more of a facilitator role and Wiggins was scoring at will. In those 11 games where Butler (who played in nine of those games) was playing a “passive” role – he only scored over 20 points once in that stretch – Wiggins played with a lot more confidence.

Since then, Wiggins’ has seen his defense get better and his offense get worse.

The strangest thing about it – and I’m going to keep it brief here, as I’m writing about it in full detail for Friday – is how similarly below average his advanced numbers have been with Butler on and off the floor.

This break might be huge for Wiggins. Is it possible that he came out of the gate hot because, simply put, he had the energy to do so? Maybe exerting his energy on defense the way he did from mid-December on impacted his ability to play offense the way he’s shown to be able to.

2. Figuring out the team defense

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hv6k600BNv8

The video above, featuring four guys that have devastated the Wolves historically, scored just 88 points in this contest.

It goes quickly forgotten, but there was a stretch where the Wolves gave up fewer than 100 points in eight straight games. We’ve seen quality defense before from this team. ‘

A few things happened in this stretch: Towns and Wiggins played the best defense of their careers, Butler played like a true MVP candidate and the bench held up their end of the bargain.

This is much more of a collective issue than anything else on this list, but the two young pieces in the starting lineup might be the main answer here. The defense was elite when Towns was defending at an elite level. The rest of the team followed them.

The second he became an imposing force in the paint, started reading screens and cuts correctly, the Timberwolves became truly difficult to score on. Butler has been an All-Defensive team member before and Wiggins has been significantly more active the past three months, but Towns hasn’t put it all together yet.

Butler might have started a movement defensively, but Towns might be the one that has to get everyone truly on board.

3. Jeff Teague’s consistency

It’s been tough to watch Jeff Teague at different points this season.

His defense has been as advertised (read: not great), his jumper hasn’t been consistent, and he’s developed a bad habit of holding onto the ball too much.

He’s currently seventh in the NBA — with at least 1,000 minutes played — in average seconds per touch, according to NBA.com, but the six above him are multi-year All-Stars.

Literally all six of them: John Wall, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard and  Chris Paul are the only starting point guards with the ball in their hands more than Jeff Teague.

On a team with Butler, Towns and Wiggins, that is a problem.

It’s also been a uniquely injury-filled year for Teague, who has missed time on two separate occasions due to respective ankle and knee injuries. Before this season, he hadn’t missed time like this before.

It’s possible that the past five games have been the healthy Teague we’ve been waiting for, and the one we saw in November.

In the small sample size of the past two weeks, Teague has looked better. According to Thibodeau, he’s felt better.

“He’s been great for us,” Thibodeau said after their win last week over the Lakers. “I think the penetration, not hesitating on his shot. He’s attacking. He’s playing great right now.”

In that same frame of time – the last five games, to be exact – his average seconds per touch go up from 5.48 up to 5.90 – seventh in the league to fifth. But his production otherwise has been stellar.

Listing the stats wouldn’t be worth it because of the tiny sample size, but the eye test might be telling. If he’s truly healthy for the first time in months, that could be big for nights when one of the big three have an off shooting night.

That can be Teague’s time to shine.

4. Karl-Anthony Towns getting his shots

The Timberwolves are 5-5 in games Karl-Anthony Towns has taken fewer than 10 shots. Those ten games can be frustrating for Wolves fans, especially when complementing that with the video above.

At this point, Towns is third on the team in shot attempts per game. That is despite him leading the starting lineup in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, true shooting and effective field goal percentage.

Thibodeau was asked about this back in December, where he attributed double teams and a lack of movement to the low shot count.

“He has to keep moving if they’re making a commitment to getting the ball out of his hands,” Thibodeau said after a loss to Memphis, where he took just five shots. “When he gives the ball up, he has to keep moving. That’s the biggest thing. You can’t become stationary.”

On one hand, this is fair. Towns is going to get doubled more than anyone else on the team, and he needs to play off of that. Having weapons like Butler, Wiggins and Teague is huge.

But at some point, he’ll need to learn to get shots up after the double.

Part of it is tactical. Writer Brian Sampson broke down the ways Towns is being used in a similar way Joakim Noah was used in Chicago. Often times, he’ll catch the ball at the top of the key, run a hand-off and start setting a series of off-ball screens.

Sometimes, those screens will result in a 3 at the top of the key. But it’s rarely resulted in him getting his own shot off the dribble, unless he gets a look in the post.

This year, Towns is 13th in post-ups and 27th in paint touches according to NBA.com. The prior year, he was first in post-ups and ninth in paint touches.

He isn’t getting any more 3-point looks per game, so a re-shuffling of shots isn’t what’s happening here.

The acquisition of Butler, and the time he spends attacking the paint, is part of it. Taj Gibson’s post presence is part of it too. And while Wiggins’ willingness to attack has dissipated a bit the last few months, he’ll still enter the lane.

There is good news, of course. Towns is a unicorn-type player, has been uber-efficient throughout the course of his career, and still put up All-Star-quality production in just his third season. The problem hasn’t been constant enough for it to be a true concern.

Even if it is,  he’s a smart enough player to figure it out. Probably this season.


Listen to Tim on Wolves Wired!

Timberwolves
Jordan McLaughlin’s Adaptability Remains Invaluable For the Wolves
By Jonah Maves - Mar 28, 2024
Timberwolves
Draymond Green’s Antics Are Beneath the Wolves
By Andrew Dukowitz - Mar 27, 2024
Timberwolves

The Wolves Unlocked Something By Starting Naz Reid

(photo credit: Jim Faklis)

Naz Reid. Those two words were the only thing you could see or hear inside Target Center on Friday after in-arena host Jon Berry instructed the sold-out […]

Continue Reading