Timberwolves

FAKLIS: Staying in the Top Four Will Be Tough, But Not Impossible

(photo credit: Jim Faklis)

The factors stacked up against the Timberwolves are obvious and well-documented.

They’re without Jimmy Butler for the next handful of weeks, are about to embark on the toughest stretch of the season – a three-week grind, starting Thursday in Portland, against exclusively playoff teams – all in a famously-close Western Conference playoff race.

It’s been discussed, but it’s worth repeating: The Wolves are currently third in the West, but are also five games ahead of Utah for 10th. With a healthy Butler, that is a less frightening hurdle to deal with.

Without him, it’s much more difficult to look at the final 18 games with the same optimism they had originally. Even after a pair of initial blowout wins in his absence over Chicago and Sacramento, the quality of that competition makes the team’s future murky.

With Butler, the hope of holding onto a top-four slot was a realistic scenario. Without him, especially when looking at the next three weeks, the idea of dropping off suddenly feels a lot more real.

This schedule will be tough, and it’s entirely possible – perhaps even probable – that the Wolves will fall below fourth in the standings during this stretch for the first time in recent memory.

But not necessarily.

While the Wolves have an insanely tough schedule that they need to be up and ready for, it’s not like their competition has it easy. The Spurs are the best example; they came out of the All-Star break as the team with the toughest strength of schedule in the league. At this point in the season, the Spurs remain at the top of the West. Portland is second, with Minnesota and Oklahoma City fourth and fifth respectively.

It’s also great that the Wolves are in a position to clinch tiebreakers with all seven teams they’re competing against.

They already down them over New Orleans, Los Angeles and Oklahoma City. They can do the same this week with wins over Portland and Utah, and only need one victory to do the same over San Antonio and Denver.

This is huge when considering the fact that, simply put, all eight teams competing for playoff positioning will have to play each other several more times before the season’s up.

When factoring in elite teams like Golden State, Houston, Toronto and Boston, it makes for an even more interesting finish.

Of course, the schedule comes back to the caveat that the Wolves will be without Butler. And while this matters, it’s not a unique problem.

Past the Spurs’ loss of Leonard for the majority of this season, LaMarcus Aldridge might be out a while, after injuring his ankle in Wednesday’s loss to New Orleans. Paul Millsap is getting re-acquainted in Denver. Los Angeles is still fresh off a trade from its leading scorer. New Orleans is without Cousins. Utah has been with and without Rudy Gobert for much of the year.

Even Oklahoma City, while mostly healthy, is without defensive specialist Andre Roberson for the season. While they’re reportedly signing former Wolf Corey Brewer to help fill that void, the loss of Roberson has given the Thunder an occasional hiccup they wouldn’t otherwise experience.

The only team that health hasn’t affected much is Portland, who the Wolves play on Thursday.

Similar to the Utah Jazz around the All-Star break, Portland has dramatically improved its situation over the past 15 games. They’ve won four straight and six of their last seven games, and have picked it up big-time defensively over that stretch.

While they’ve traditionally been middle-of-the-road offensively and slightly above average defensively, they’ve moved up to fifth in defensive rating over their recent stretch. On a team with offensive juggernauts like Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, that particular combination might not be the sensible one to predict on paper.

But Terry Stotts has managed to turn them into a sound defensive team that is generally tough to score on. Lately, it’s been near-impossible.

But like the rest of this cluster of a Western Conference middle class, the Blazers have their faults. It’s why they haven’t managed to separate themselves from the rest this season, and it’s why Thursday’s game is incredibly important for the Wolves.

It’s possible that the Wolves will lose to Portland on Thursday. It’s possible that a losing streak happens, and they fall way down the Western Conference standings. Technically, it’s possible that they miss the playoffs.

But it’s important to remember that the teams competing directly with the Wolves for the spot they hold have uphill climbs of their own. In some cases, their situations are even tougher than Minnesota’s.

And it’s important to remember that, if the rehab timetable of 4-to-6 weeks – reported by Yahoo! Sports‘ Shams Charania – is accurate, Butler will return before the regular season is over.

In the meantime, continued success will rely on, among other things: Karl-Anthony Towns’ All-Star season, Andrew Wiggins’ recent resurgence and continued point guard success from Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones.

A myriad of scenarios is on the table for the final month of the season. The Wolves have work to do, but there’s still a lot of hope left.

A top-four finish will be tough, but it’s doable.


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