The beginning of Andrew Wiggins’ career was expectedly turbulent.
Through his first three years in the NBA, Wiggins was relied upon to be the team’s primary and/or secondary scoring option, which led to a mixed bag of results.
He came into the league with supreme athleticism, good-looking form on his jumper and high potential on both ends of the floor. He showed an immediate level of control of his elite-level athleticism, showing a strong will of getting to the basket and finishing in traffic.
His ball handling, shot selection, outside shot and general defensive IQ were all far from ready in his rookie year. But through the three years, he has improved in every aspect of the game.
There’s no question he’s a better basketball player now. He’s more active defensively, is better at passing off the drive, and has shown an improved sense of how to play off the ball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVUzbs7R3lA
But how have his improved individual skills translated to on-court success for his team?
It’s hard to immediately judge this year’s version of Wiggins. For three seasons, Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns were “the guys.” Now Jimmy Butler is in Minnesota, and that has required some adjustments for everyone.
Clearly, Butler has been an overall plus for the Wolves. He’s the leader of his team, will likely make another All-NBA team this season and is very likely going to lead his team to the playoffs in over a decade.
But he also has the ball in his hands a lot.
This isn’t a bad thing in theory; Butler is a good passer and has been good about setting his teammates up for good looks. He also takes the other team’s best perimeter offensive player.
This, in theory, should benefit Wiggins on both ends of the floor. Not only is he no longer guarding the other team’s best player, he’s also no longer being guarded by the other team’s best perimeter defender.
But with all that in mind, the stats suggest none of those advantages are coming to fruition.
According to NBAWowy.com, the numbers Wiggins puts up with Butler on the floor are virtually the same as the ones he puts up with him off the floor.
Both sets of figures are eerily similar to that of his junior season, when Zach LaVine was getting Butler’s shots, in a sense.
When you take his first 11 games this season into account – a period of time where a more “passive” Butler played in nine of those games – Wiggins’ numbers were strangely elevated.
| Andrew Wiggins Stats | Effective Field Goal Percentage | True Shooting Percentage | Offensive Rating |
| First 11 games (with a “passive” Butler) | 51.2 | 53.6 | 108 |
| 2017-18 With Butler | 48.0 | 49.9 | 102 |
| 2017-18 Without Butler | 48.9 | 51.0 | 108 |
| 2016-17 Season | 48.4 | 53.4 | 107 |
A season ago, Wiggins averaged nearly seven free throw attempts per game, a vast upgrade from what we’ve seen this year.
This season, he’s averaging a career-low 3.9 free throw attempts per game despite taking a comparable number of field goal attempts to the rest of his career.
The difference here is his free-throw percentage. Wiggins has always had problems staying consistent at the line, but this year has been a new low. The career 76 percent foul shooter heading into the year is shooting just 63.4 percent from the foul line through 61 games this season.
It’s fairly obvious the bad free throw numbers are getting to him, too. His free throw numbers started near their normal mark in October – 7.1 attempts per game in seven games. His tendency and tenacity attacking the paint was what we’re used to early on.
As his free-throw attempts started to decline, so did his tendency to find good shots at the rim. He’s always had a habit of pulling up for contested jumpers, but it’s been especially bad the last three months.
Take this play for example. He catches the ball with Michael Beasley – a below average defender – one-on-one with a clear path to the hoop. Instead of taking Beasley off the dribble, he opts to pull up.
What might be even more concerning is that Wiggins is actually shooting a better percentage in the paint this year versus last year, according to NBA.com’s shot charts. In addition, the number of attempts has fallen off, it’s not to the extreme that his halved free-throw rate would suggest.
In short, the inclusion of Butler might be freeing Wiggins up for more looks, and better ones, but he’s not converting, at least compared to a league average.
There’s a lot to unpack here. While it’s clear the free throw issues has affected Wiggins’ willingness to attack, why hasn’t it been a more intense statistical impact?
This goes back to Wiggins’ improved ability off the ball. He learned this initially from playing off Ricky Rubio, but the inclusion of Butler has forced him to learn how to cut in a different way.
The case can be made that Wiggins had gotten so used to running as the team’s primary scoring wing, that the acquisition of Butler forced him to readjust his play.
Even with LaVine on the floor last year, Wiggins’ role with the team didn’t make as drastic a change in terms of the national narrative. Wiggins was still “the guy” between the two of them.
There’s no question or confusion about this year. This is now Butler’s team, and Butler is the primary wing. The ball is in his hands in the closing moments, and other teams are game planning against him first.
But while there has been an adjustment in that sense, and while Wiggins has yet to truly reap the benefits of the lesser defensive coverage that come with a player like Butler, he is learning.
According to NBA.com, he’s already attempted more shots off cuts through 61 games than he did all of last season.
The Wolves have the pieces to run off-ball movement with their wings, and Wiggins has gotten more of his baskets this season off of baseline cuts. Butler is very often the one getting him the ball in those situations.
The second part is more team-wide. The Timberwolves have a starting lineup full of guys that love to score from inside. In fact, Wiggins takes the lowest percentage of shot attempts in the paint among the Wolves starters, according to NBA.com.
Even Jeff Teague, who has experienced his own scrutiny and struggles to shoot at a consistently effective clip, has taken a higher percentage of shots in the paint, albeit at a lower percentage than Wiggins.
This aspect of Wiggins’ dropped off numbers isn’t an indictment of his game, but rather an observation of the team as a whole. The Timberwolves have been well-established as one of the lowest 3-point volume teams in the league.
Instead, the Thibodeau has implored his team to attack the paint – or “pressure the defense”, as he often puts it – and go from there. The pressure Butler, Towns, Gibson and Teague put on the rim makes it easier for Wiggins to then work off the ball and get easy looks.
Working off the ball is the way he’s been able to take advantage of the weaker defender on him. That’s what it seems like early on, anyway.
History suggests Wiggins’ shooting woes from the foul line are a unique circumstance that should be sorted out, but perhaps not until next season.
If that is the case, and he does find his free throw form again, his attack should come back. If his attack comes back, and his off-ball competence continues to improve, his confidence should go up.
And a confident and driven Wiggins generally shoots the ball better from deep, as evidenced by a slew of exciting streaks Wolves fans have seen through the now-23-year-old’s first three-and-a-half years in the league.
He’s shown it in various “revenge games” against the Cavaliers, earned a reputation for showing up in big national TV games, and for his hometown fans in Toronto. He’s shown that he has the ability to be a star.
But not every night. Not yet, anyway.
The future of Wiggins is still a mystery, even if he’s seemingly done many of the correct things to improve. Under a massive contract for the next five years, he’ll almost certainly get a chance to figure out his long-term future in Minnesota.
Just like three years ago, all his tools suggest that could and should be a great thing for the Timberwolves. But it’s taking a bit longer than some might have expected.
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