Vikings

DRAFT GUIDE: Arif Hasan's Consensus Board

Photo Credit: Jerry Lai (USA Today Sports)

OTHER CONSENSUS BOARD CONTENT:
Forecasters vs Evaluators
Most Polarizing Players
2018 Big Board Awards
Top 20 Analytic Profiles

The Consensus Big Board is here! We’ve gathered of 48 big boards this year from talented evaluators and draft analysts across the spectrum, including third-party scouting organizations like Optimum Scouting, big media groups like ESPN and NFL Network and independent blogs like NFL Rough Draft.

In 2014 and 2015, the consensus big board did a phenomenal job identifying talent, doing about as well as the NFL did in the draft itself and better than 24 of 27 draft boards — and better than the big boards presented by Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Lance Zierlein and a slough of other talented evaluators.

Last year, the board did an excellent job identifying promising undrafted free agents, like Anthony Walker, Corey Clement, Chad Wheeler, Bryan Cox Jr., Travis Rudolph, Ricky Seals-Jones, Kyle Kalis, Hardy Nickerson Jr., Dylan Cole and Erik Magnuson… as well as the Vikings’ own Eric Wilson and Tashawn Bower.

Already, we’ve used the Consensus Board to identify the most polarizing players in the draft and we can see which prospects draw the starkest differences between Evaluators and Forecasters, something we did last year to great effect.

Every year, we post the board with different kinds of position designations and we’ll be doing that once again. Those positions are QB, RBF, RBC, FB, WRF, WRS, TE, OT, OG, C, DL1T, DL3T, DL5T, EDGE, LB, CB, S, K and P.

That’s a lot of different positions—much more than usual—but teams draft roles just as easily as they draft players. Knowing where a player fits is more important than anything else.

Most of these are intuitive, but a few need some explanation. WRF/WRS refer to feature wide receivers and slot wide receivers. RBF/RBC refers to feature running backs — bellcows that typically (but not always) weigh 210 pounds or more. RBC refers to “change-of-pace” backs, an admittedly imprecise term that captures the running backs that are expected to be complementary pieces that specialize in passing game performance.

Instead of 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends, we have edge rushers. Not all edge rushers will be rushing the edge all the time, and for some schemes, having the overhand defender play coverage responsibilities will be important (Von Miller is more valuable than J.J. Watt in this way). But, for the most part, the most important ability they have is to put pressure on the quarterback. They are more alike than different.

DL1T, DL3T and DL5T refer to different defensive line positions. DL1Ts are essentially nose tackles lined up between the center and guard of the offensive line. Those are players like Linval Joseph, Danny Shelton and Dontari Poe. This year, the top DL1T is Vita Vea from Washington.

DL3T are pass-rushing tackles—Aaron Donald, Sharrif Floyd and Geno Atkins. The top DL3T on the consensus board is Michigan’s Maurice Hurst.

The final defensive line assignment is reserved for 3-4 defensive ends, though it doesn’t quite capture the breadth of the position. They can include players like J.J. Watt, Mike Neal and Joey Bosa. This year, the top DL5T is Rasheem Green.

The issue, of course, that these things are messy. Green is being projected to play on the edge by some analysts, and some like Da’Ron Payne further on the outside as a five-technique. Kalen Ballage is listed here as a change-of-pace back despite being massive among his peers, and though Saquon Barkley will certainly feature in any offense he’s placed in, much of his value will come from the passing game.

Hercules Mata’afa played on the inside his entire college career, but many think he should play on the edge in the NFL. Take all the DL positional groupings with a grain of salt.

Next to the player’s positional rank, you’ll see a variance score. The higher that score is, the more evaluators disagreed on that player’s ranking. People will interpret that differently: for some it’s an expression of having a high ceiling or a low floor. That means for lowly-ranked players, a higher variance score can be good because it means they have more upside.

For other people, it means more uncertainty in the evaluation. If people all disagree on this prospect, what does it mean he can do, and does it mean his skills are more of a projection than an evaluation? That may mean disregarding that player more than otherwise.

The average variance score is 100, and that has been adjusted for a player’s overall rank position (because generally speaking there is more variance the further down you go). Naturally, as more boards are added, the more variance we’ll see — already, Josh Allen’s variance has risen from 187 to 201, by far the most we’ve ever seen for a prospect.

Below are the top 300.

Rank Player School Position Pos Rk Variance
1 Saquon Barkley Penn State RBF 1 101.3
2 Quenton Nelson Notre Dame OG 1 89.9
3 Bradley Chubb North Carolina State EDGE 1 87.1
4 Josh Rosen UCLA QB 1 100.5
5 Roquan Smith Georgia LB 1 84.4
6 Minkah Fitzpatrick Alabama S 1 83.6
7 Derwin James Florida State S 2 83.5
8 Sam Darnold USC QB 2 145.2
9 Denzel Ward Ohio State CB 1 82.1
10 Tremaine Edmunds Virginia Tech LB 2 91.5
11 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma QB 3 113.3
12 Vita Vea Washington DL1T 1 87.1
13 Harold Landry Boston College EDGE 2 103.8
14 Derrius Guice LSU RBF 2 88.3
15 Isaiah Wynn Georgia OG 2 95.1
16 Jaire Alexander Louisville CB 2 95.5
17 Mike McGlinchey Notre Dame OT 1 85.5
18 Josh Jackson Iowa CB 3 128.8
19 Maurice Hurst Michigan DL3T 1 116.6
20 Calvin Ridley Alabama WRF 1 101.9
21 Lamar Jackson Louisville QB 4 116.8
22 Rashaan Evans Alabama LB 3 88.3
23 Connor Williams Texas OT 2 105.0
24 Da’Ron Payne Alabama DL1T 2 92.7
25 Will Hernandez UTEP OG 3 80.6
26 Marcus Davenport UTSA EDGE 3 97.6
27 Josh Allen Wyoming QB 5 182.0
28 Taven Bryan Florida DL3T 2 89.9
29 James Daniels Iowa OC 1 99.5
30 Leighton Vander Esch Boise State LB 4 108.8
31 Courtland Sutton SMU WRF 2 104.6
32 D.J. Moore Maryland WRF 3 83.2
33 Mike Hughes Central Florida CB 4 93.2
34 Billy Price Ohio State OG 4 87.4
35 Ronald Jones II USC RBF 3 86.0
36 Sony Michel Georgia RBF 4 79.2
37 Isaiah Oliver Colorado CB 5 83.1
38 Ronnie Harrison Alabama S 3 105.3
39 Nick Chubb Georgia RBF 5 75.6
40 Dallas Goedert South Dakota State TE 1 99.4
41 Frank Ragnow Arkansas OC 2 110.0
42 Carlton Davis Auburn CB 6 117.2
43 Justin Reid Stanford S 4 88.2
44 Christian Kirk Texas A&M WRF 4 94.0
45 Kolton Miller UCLA OT 3 108.4
46 Mike Gesicki Penn State TE 2 81.5
47 Sam Hubbard Ohio State EDGE 4 93.8
48 Anthony Miller Memphis WRS 1 82.8
49 Tyrell Crosby Oregon OT 4 88.9
50 James Washington Oklahoma State WRF 5 81.9
51 Austin Corbett Nevada OG 5 113.4
52 Donte Jackson LSU CB 7 117.5
53 Harrison Phillips Stanford DL1T 3 116.6
54 Hayden Hurst South Carolina TE 3 115.5
55 Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State QB 6 120.1
56 Lorenzo Carter Georgia EDGE 5 109.0
57 Jessie Bates III Wake Forest S 5 105.7
58 Josh Sweat Florida State EDGE 6 100.5
59 Kerryon Johnson Auburn RBF 6 91.6
60 D.J. Chark LSU WRF 6 98.6
61 Braden Smith Auburn OG 6 82.5
62 Nathan Shepherd Fort Hays State DL3T 3 98.3
63 Mark Andrews Oklahoma TE 4 100.4
64 Rashaad Penny San Diego State RBF 7 89.1
65 Ogbonnia Okoronkwo Oklahoma LB 5 102.0
66 Arden Key LSU EDGE 7 108.0
67 Dante Pettis Washington WRF 7 95.1
68 Orlando Brown Oklahoma OT 5 102.6
69 Malik Jefferson Texas LB 6 93.5
70 Martinas Rankin Mississippi State OT 6 93.0
71 Michael Gallup Colorado State WRF 8 97.7
72 Brian O’Neill Pittsburgh OT 7 117.9
73 Rasheem Green USC DL5T 1 117.6
74 Uchenna Nwosu USC EDGE 8 101.5
75 Chukwuma Okorafor Western Michigan OT 8 100.8
76 Duke Ejiofor Wake Forest EDGE 9 99.8
77 B.J. Hill North Carolina State DL1T 4 103.0
78 Jamarco Jones Ohio State OT 9 103.5
79 Derrick Nnadi Florida State DL1T 5 89.1
80 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame WRF 9 101.7
81 Kemoko Turay Rutgers EDGE 10 103.0
82 Royce Freeman Oregon RBF 8 98.2
83 M.J. Stewart North Carolina CB 8 95.4
84 DaeSean Hamilton Penn State WRF 10 88.3
85 Fred Warner BYU LB 8 107.4
86 Tim Settle Virginia Tech DL1T 6 109.4
87 Darius Leonard South Carolina State LB 7 115.7
88 Jerome Baker Ohio State LB 9 95.7
89 Duke Dawson Florida CB 9 101.1
90 Kyzir White West Virginia S 6 101.6
91 Quenton Meeks Stanford CB 11 107.5
92 Anthony Averett Alabama CB 10 99.3
93 Ian Thomas Indiana TE 5 96.7
94 Deon Cain Clemson WRF 11 93.6
95 Da’Shawn Hand Alabama DL5T 2 105.8
96 Holton Hill Texas CB 12 100.4
97 DeShon Elliott Texas S 7 94.6
98 Kyle Lauletta Richmond QB 7 102.3
99 Josey Jewell Iowa LB 10 94.1
100 Geron Christian Louisville OT 10 149.5
101 Nyheim Hines North Carolina State RBC 1 98.7
102 Shaquem Griffin Central Florida LB 11 91.6
103 Rashaan Gaulden Tennessee CB 13 109.6
104 Armani Watts Texas A&M S 9 93.0
105 Terrell Edmunds Virginia Tech S 10 106.6
106 Marcus Allen Penn State S 8 95.8
107 John Kelly Tennessee RBF 9 91.0
108 Mason Cole Michigan OC 3 90.6
109 Nick Nelson Wisconsin CB 14 98.1
110 Wyatt Teller Virginia Tech OG 7 90.1
111 Jaylen Samuels North Carolina State RBC 2 93.7
112 Tre’Quan Smith Central Florida WRF 12 86.0
113 Genard Avery Memphis LB 12 107.0
114 Hercules Mata’afa Washington State EDGE 12 96.5
115 Tyquan Lewis Ohio State EDGE 11 95.2
116 Chad Thomas Miami (FL) EDGE 13 94.0
117 Isaac Yiadom Boston College CB 15 90.6
118 Mark Walton Miami (FL) RBF 10 91.2
119 Jeff Holland Auburn EDGE 14 109.8
120 Alex Cappa Humboldt State OT 11 94.6
121 Deadrin Senat South Florida DL1T 7 96.3
122 Mike White Western Kentucky QB 8 90.0
123 Kalen Ballage Arizona State RBC 3 100.8
124 Dorian O’Daniel Clemson LB 13 102.0
125 Marcell Ateman Oklahoma State WRF 13 107.4
126 RJ McIntosh Miami (FL) DL3T 4 93.1
127 Dorance Armstrong Jr. Kansas EDGE 15 100.4
128 Andrew Brown Virginia DL5T 3 94.7
129 Jordan Whitehead Pittsburgh S 11 98.7
130 Tarvarus McFadden Florida State CB 16 95.4
131 Antonio Callaway Florida WRS 2 101.0
132 Dalton Schultz Stanford TE 6 99.6
133 Cedrick Wilson Boise State WRF 14 90.6
134 Chris Herndon Miami (FL) TE 7 96.8
135 Luke Falk Washington State QB 9 93.3
136 Joseph Noteboom TCU OT 12 92.6
137 Breeland Speaks Mississippi DL3T 6 93.8
138 Jalyn Holmes Ohio State DL5T 4 88.3
139 Keke Coutee Texas Tech WRS 3 85.7
140 Desmond Harrison West Georgia OT 13 94.0
141 Will Richardson North Carolina State OT 15 96.9
142 Micah Kiser Virginia LB 14 88.3
143 D.J. Reed Kansas State CB 17 90.3
144 Brandon Parker North Carolina A&T OT 14 96.7
145 Allen Lazard Iowa State WRF 15 85.4
146 Trenton Thompson Georgia DL3T 5 91.4
147 Quin Blanding Virginia S 12 86.1
148 Oren Burks Vanderbilt LB 15 112.2
149 Parry Nickerson Tulane CB 18 99.4
150 Troy Fumagalli Wisconsin TE 8 87.4
151 Scott Quessenberry UCLA OC 4 93.6
152 J’Mon Moore Missouri WRF 16 79.4
153 Auden Tate Florida State WRF 17 92.2
154 Tarvarius Moore Southern Mississippi S 14 203.2
155 Dane Cruikshank Arizona S 13 121.5
156 Bo Scarbrough Alabama RBF 11 78.8
157 Justin Jones North Carolina State DL1T 8 85.3
158 Simmie Cobbs Jr. Indiana WRF 18 89.9
159 Foley Fatukasi Connecticut DL1T 9 97.4
160 Josh Adams Notre Dame RBF 12 89.4
161 Marquis Haynes Mississippi EDGE 16 81.9
162 Jack Cichy Wisconsin LB 17 89.2
163 P.J. Hall Sam Houston State DL3T 7 118.4
164 Kylie Fitts Utah EDGE 17 78.5
165 Trey Quinn SMU WRF 19 80.4
166 Deontay Burnett USC WRF 20 82.6
167 Kevin Toliver II LSU CB 19 110.7
168 Tony Brown Alabama CB 20 120.3
169 Akrum Wadley Iowa RBF 13 82.7
170 Colby Gossett Appalachian State OG 8 98.7
171 Will Clapp LSU OG 9 78.7
172 Darius Phillips Western Michigan CB 21 83.6
173 Kentavius Street North Carolina State DL3T 8 87.7
174 Tegray Scales Indiana LB 16 82.5
175 Jordan Lasley UCLA WRF 21 79.2
176 Durham Smythe Notre Dame TE 9 88.4
177 Christian Sam Arizona State LB 18 94.3
178 Ade Aruna Tulane EDGE 18 85.0
179 Godwin Igwebuike Northwestern S 15 83.5
180 Avonte Maddox Pittsburgh CB 22 75.9
181 Poona Ford Texas DL3T 9 74.7
182 Skai Moore South Carolina LB 19 130.2
183 Levi Wallace Alabama CB 23 79.4
184 Kameron Kelly San Diego State S 16 90.8
185 Tyler Conklin Central Michigan TE 10 103.5
186 Kendrick Norton Miami (FL) DL1T 10 87.7
187 Cole Madison Washington State OT 16 96.8
188 Leon Jacobs Wisconsin LB 20 106.4
189 Korey Robertson Southern Mississippi WRF 22 97.5
190 Siran Neal Jacksonville State S 17 74.6
191 Mike McCray Michigan LB 21 79.6
192 Skyler Phillips Idaho State OG 10 92.3
193 Kurt Benkert Virginia QB 10 74.3
194 Bilal Nichols Delaware DL5T 5 90.5
195 Shaun Dion Hamilton Alabama LB 22 83.7
196 Jaleel Scott New Mexico State WRF 26 90.8
197 Javon Wims Georgia WRF 23 79.3
198 Byron Pringle Kansas State WRF 24 80.1
199 Daurice Fountain Northern Iowa WRF 25 99.2
200 Timon Parris Stony Brook OT 17 100.2
201 Toby Weathersby LSU OT 18 91.1
202 J.C. Jackson Maryland CB 24 100.2
203 Dylan Cantrell Texas Tech WRF 27 94.6
204 Damon Webb Ohio State S 18 79.5
205 Richie James Middle Tennessee WRS 4 101.1
206 Jeremy Reaves South Alabama S 20 128.6
207 Dimitri Flowers Oklahoma FB 1 74.6
208 Joe Ostman Central Michigan EDGE 19 116.9
209 Justin Jackson Northwestern RBC 4 79.2
210 Jordan Akins Central Florida TE 11 95.2
211 James Looney California DL3T 10 114.7
212 Matthew Thomas Florida State LB 23 94.0
213 Brett Toth Army OT 19 76.3
214 Trayvon Henderson Hawaii S 19 95.0
215 Will Dissly Washington TE 12 108.6
216 Davin Bellamy Georgia LB 24 77.9
217 Olasunkanmi Adeniyi Toledo EDGE 20 79.2
218 Sean Welsh Iowa OG 11 75.2
219 Brian Allen Michigan State OC 5 77.8
220 Lowell Lotulelei Utah DL1T 11 92.9
221 Riley Ferguson Memphis QB 11 71.4
222 Taylor Hearn Clemson OG 12 95.8
223 Troy Apke Penn State S 21 93.4
224 Braxton Berrios Miami (FL) WRS 5 72.4
225 Jester Weah Pittsburgh WRF 29 74.4
226 Ito Smith Southern Mississippi RBC 5 81.1
227 Darren Carrington II Utah WRF 28 72.0
228 Christian Campbell Penn State CB 27 146.1
229 Trevon Young Louisville EDGE 21 101.0
230 Bradley Bozeman Alabama OC 6 98.1
231 Brandon Facyson Virginia Tech CB 26 82.3
232 Chase Litton Marshall QB 12 73.1
233 Tony Adams North Carolina State OG 13 116.3
234 Darrel Williams LSU RBF 14 92.5
235 Phillip Lindsay Colorado RBC 6 82.8
236 Taron Johnson Weber State CB 25 74.8
237 Marcell Frazier Missouri EDGE 22 90.2
238 Michael Dickson Texas P 1 125.4
239 Jamil Demby Maine OG 14 87.0
240 Chase Edmonds Fordham FB 2 86.8
241 Ryan Izzo Florida State TE 13 87.2
242 Natrell Jamerson Wisconsin S 22 90.5
243 Jake Wieneke South Dakota State WRF 30 76.9
244 Sam Jones Arizona State OG 15 83.7
245 Justin Lawler SMU EDGE 23 89.2
246 Grant Haley Penn State CB 28 87.9
247 Jason Cabinda Penn State LB 29 81.5
248 Nick Gates Nebraska OG 16 89.4
249 Coleman Shelton Washington OC 7 89.2
250 Greg Stroman Virginia Tech CB 31 95.9
251 Nick DeLuca North Dakota State LB 26 92.2
252 Justin Watson Penn WRF 31 101.8
253 Tre Flowers Oklahoma State S 23 96.2
254 Tray Matthews Auburn S 24 92.0
255 Kahlil McKenzie Jr. Tennessee DL1T 12 81.3
256 Danny Johnson Southern CB 33 86.5
257 Peter Kalambayi Stanford LB 31 90.6
258 Davontae Harris Illinois State CB 30 96.9
259 JK Scott Alabama P 2 98.6
260 Jordan Wilkins Mississippi RBF 16 90.9
261 Roc Thomas Jacksonville State RBF 15 96.3
262 Ryan Nall Oregon State FB 3 80.9
263 Chris Worley Ohio State LB 32 84.0
264 Azeem Victor Washington LB 27 90.7
265 Kenny Young UCLA LB 25 91.1
266 Keishawn Bierria Washington LB 30 90.8
267 Michael Joseph Dubuque CB 32 83.8
268 Garret Dooley Wisconsin EDGE 24 81.7
269 Dejon Allen Hawaii OG 17 98.8
270 David Bright Stanford OT 23 91.1
271 Chandon Sullivan Georgia State CB 29 85.4
272 Tanner Lee Nebraska QB 13 86.5
273 JoJo Wicker Arizona State DL5T 6 88.0
274 JaVon Rolland-Jones Arkansas State EDGE 25 98.6
275 Andre Smith North Carolina LB 28 85.4
276 KC McDermott Miami (FL) OT 21 84.0
277 Greg Senat Wagner OT 20 88.6
278 Joel Iyiegbuniwe Western Kentucky LB 33 87.7
279 Quadree Henderson Pittsburgh WRS 6 92.1
280 Tracy Walker Louisiana-Lafayette S 25 93.8
281 Daniel Carlson Auburn PK 1 102.6
282 Eddy Pineiro Florida PK 2 93.2
283 Cody O’Connell Washington State OG 18 88.2
284 Arrion Springs Oregon CB 34 104.3
285 Zachary Crabtree Oklahoma State OT 22 86.0
286 Logan Woodside Toledo QB 14 84.7
287 John Atkins Georgia DL1T 13 87.5
288 Nic Shimonek Texas Tech QB 15 84.1
289 Maea Teuhema Southeastern Louisiana OG 19 94.4
290 Darious Williams UAB CB 35 111.6
291 Jaryd Jones-Smith Pittsburgh OT 24 89.2
292 Josh Kalu Nebraska S 27 91.3
293 Stephen Roberts Auburn S 26 89.2
294 Marcus Baugh Ohio State TE 14 90.7
295 John Franklin-Myers Stephen F Austin DL5T 7 91.0
296 Jullian Taylor Temple DL3T 11 104.1
297 Nick Bawden San Diego State FB 4 93.9
298 Kamrin Moore Boston College CB 36 93.3
299 Jordan Thomas Oklahoma CB 37 97.7
300 Brandon Silvers Troy QB 16 95.4

 

(See what last year’s Consensus Board looked like.)

Follow the links to enjoy the rest of the Zone Coverage Draft Guide.

TOP 40 PLAYERS
POSITION RANKINGS
VIKINGS DRAFT TRENDS
VIKINGS NEEDS
VIKINGS TARGETS

Welcome to the 2018 Zone Coverage Draft Guide
By Zone Coverage Wire - Apr 12, 2018
DRAFT GUIDE: Top 40 Players
By Zone Coverage Wire - Apr 12, 2018
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Photo Credit: Jerry Lai (USA Today Sports)

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