Until about 10:30 p.m. Sunday night, Vikings fans will be debating who they’d prefer to play in the Wild Card round next weekend.
For several hours Sunday afternoon, Green Bay’s lackluster showing in Detroit opened the door for a Packers three-match, a.k.a. a third meeting with the division rival that had beaten the Vikings twice this season. A Detroit upset would’ve set the stage for the third Vikings-Packers playoff game in 15 years, but seconds after head coach Mike Zimmer concluded his postgame press conference at U.S. Bank Stadium, Mason Crosby knocked in a game-winning 33-yard field goal at Ford Field to give the Packers a bye.
Now the Vikings wait until Sunday night’s 49ers-Seahawks game to learn their next opponent for a game that may take place as early as Saturday. If the Seahawks win, the Vikings head back to Seattle. If the 49ers win, the Vikings travel to New Orleans. If there’s a tie, then it’s San Francisco.
“It’ll just be like a normal day,” Zimmer said about the wait. “Have a little dinner, have a little red wine and sit back.”
The head coach may not be as relaxed once his week of preparation begins. Seattle has beaten the Vikings six straight times with Russell Wilson, including four times on Zimmer’s watch. New Orleans is on an offensive tear, has just one home playoff loss in 25 years (last year’s NFC Title Game) and has a Hall of Fame quarterback that might be awfully interested in finishing his career with a Super Bowl victory.
The Vikings are unlikely to be given much of a chance by pundits in either matchup, but let’s take a look at the pros and cons of both. For now, we’ll ignore the possibility of a San Francisco matchup in the result of a tie.
THE PROS OF PLAYING SEATTLE
The Seahawks enter a critical battle with the 49ers as a banged-up football team. Top running backs Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson are out (a tandem that helped torch the Vikings for over 200 rushing yards in Week 13), leaving the Seahawks with a potential-washed up Marshawn Lynch at running back. Jadeveon Clowney and Shaquill Griffin may be playing through injuries. Left tackle Duane Brown is out for Sunday, and safety Quandre Diggs is unlikely to play. Their top two tight ends Ed Dickson and Will Dissly are already injured.
Meanwhile, the Vikings got the opportunity Sunday to rest their starters and presumably will enter next weekend close to 100% if Eric Kendricks’ quad injury resolves itself and Dalvin Cook’s chest/shoulder injury doesn’t hamper him.
It’s also hard to be overly intimidated by Seattle’s track record on its home field this season. They beat the Bengals and Rams by one point and the Buccaneers in overtime. They lost handily to the Saints, Ravens and Cardinals. Their seven-point win over the Vikings was their most convincing, and even that came down to the wire. Overall this season, the Seahawks’ point differential is a mere plus-12 entering Sunday night, only three points better than the 7-9 Bucs. Their defensive DVOA is 16th compared to Minnesota’s seventh.
The last time Zimmer faced Wilson in the playoffs, he shut him down despite losing 10-9 on Blair Walsh’s 27-yard miss. Granted, that was a subzero weather day that stifled both offenses.
THE CONS OF PLAYING SEATTLE
Wilson is still a magician who can make the most out of unknown skill players. His scrambling ability stretches secondaries and defensive lines. He is deadly in the red zone, throws a magnificent deep ball and rarely makes mistakes. (Don’t expect Wilson to swat the ball in Anthony Harris’s arms again like he did on Dec. 2.)
The Seahawks still maintain one of the great home field advantages in sports, which only gets enhanced by playoff-level noise. They are 10-0 in their last 10 home playoff attempts, winning by double digits five times. And if they end up playing the Vikings, it means they knocked off one of the NFC’s elite Sunday night versus San Francisco.
Rookie D.K. Metcalf has turned into a viable second receiver next to Tyler Lockett, and the Vikings secondary has been showing cracks for the entire second half of the season, including at Seattle when Xavier Rhodes was beaten for a 60-yard touchdown by David Moore.
And while the Seahawks may be leaning on an aging Lynch, the Vikings have been worn down this season by teams that have been persistent running the football, which Seattle certainly is with the third-most rushing attempts in football. The Vikings, on the other hand, are 2-5 when allowing over 100 yards rushing.
THE PROS OF PLAYING NEW ORLEANS
If the Vikings play at the Superdome next weekend, they’ll need to hope Zimmer’s track record of containing Brees continues. The Saints produced just 20, 19 and 24 points in their first three meetings against the defensive-minded head coach. Last year New Orleans scored 30 in their win at U.S. Bank Stadium, but one of their touchdowns came on defense and Brees was held to an 84.8 passer rating.
Minnesota can also hope the Saints will regress against better competition after feasting on non-playoff teams for much of the year. In eight games since returning, Brees has beaten Tampa Bay, Carolina twice, Atlanta, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Only the Titans have a chance to make the playoffs. Brees also lost home games against Atlanta and San Francisco, a sign that the Saints may not be invincible in their raucous home stadium. Against the 49ers the Saints put up 46 points but caved on defense to allow 48.
Further, there’s reason to believe the Vikings’ offense might fare better in a dome. Kirk Cousins is 13-8 lifetime in a dome versus 31-33 outside. The defense may prefer the same, considering its struggles in recent years on the grass fields at Lambeau Field and Soldier Field.
THE CONS OF PLAYING NEW ORLEANS
Zimmer has referred to Sean Payton as “indiscriminate” as a play-caller, and Payton seems to be hitting his stride with Brees since the quarterback’s return on Nov. 10. In his last seven games Brees has 22 touchdowns and one interception to become the league’s all-time leader in touchdown passes. He put together a fourth straight season at 70% or better accuracy and helped Michael Thomas set the all-time receptions record.
Thomas is a receiving machine with nine games of 10 or more receptions this season and 10 games over 100 yards, and he’s far from their only weapon. Alvin Kamara, despite suffering an injury early in the season, has over 1,200 scrimmage yards. Jared Cook has had a strong year at tight end. Taysom Hill is a wild card that can catch, run and play Wildcat quarterback.
New Orleans is generally well-rounded, ranking fourth in offensive DVOA, 12th on defense and third on special teams.
There’s also speculation that New Orleans is interested in signing receiver Antonio Brown after a season of off-field trouble. It’s unclear what Brown’s status would be if the Saints signed him, but any threat of Brown playing would give the Vikings another wrinkle for which to account.
The Saints have a host of former Vikings that could provide insight on scheme and personnel: quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, fullback Zach Line, running back Latavius Murray and offensive lineman Nick Easton.
Ultimately, there’s more to be frightened about with the Saints if you’re a Vikings fan. While the Seahawks have shown cracks throughout the season, the Saints seem to only be getting stronger.
