Tiny Nick is 62-29 (+31.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
LOCKS
NC State/St Louis Over 142.5 (-110): This game was a last minute addition to the schedule, and I don’t think the odds makers had enough time to get this total right at all. The Wolfpack averages 90.3 PPG, while the Billikens average 89.4 PPG. These are also the fourth and fifth best teams nationally in 3-point shooting percentage. That makes for St Louis being the 28th best team in adjusted offensive efficiency, and NC State the 26th best. I also look to the only game St Louis has had against a power conference team, a win over LSU with 166 total points. I’ve been high on the Billikens all season, particularly because their guards can score so well, and with another high-percentage/high-efficiency team on the other side I have to jump on this over.
DEGENERATES
San Francisco +8 @ Oregon (-110): The Dons burned their backers on Sunday, coughing up a 13-point lead and losing on a buzzer beater. It looks more like a let-down spot for them after a 45-point win in their previous game, and I see that as important because they’ve done this before, losing to Rhode Island the game after knocking off Virginia. But this is still a 5-3 ATS team that I trust, and they responded to that Rhode Island loss with a 25-point win over Nevada as a 2.5-point dog. Oregon has been up and down, only 2-3 ATS on the year and looking shaky against a bad Washington team on Saturday. I’m also not a believer in the Pac-12 in general, as they’re 6-10 as a conference against the KenPom top 100 (San Francisco checks in at No. 70). While I think Oregon should win this game, I trust the Dons to keep it close in a bounce-back spot, so I’ll take the eight points.
