If we’ve learned anything over the past few weeks it’s that we should never rush to judgments. Have patience. Let things play out before reaching conclusions. Early returns might hint at one thing, but then – seemingly overnight – things can dramatically swing the other direction.
I’m referring to the Minnesota Vikings’ season, of course.
Wait… what did you think I was talking about?
Initial results showed the Vikings falling far short of expectations. There was widespread talk of benching Kirk Cousins, tanking for Trevor, firing Mike Zimmer and trading half the team. Vikings fans who “saw the big picture” were gleefully joining the chorus of those calling for the team to continue losing and receive the highest draft pick possible in order to jumpstart a rebuild.
However, a win in Green Bay over the division-leading Packers followed by a walk-in-the-park win against the lousy Lions has left independents in the fan base wondering which way to turn. The season has reached its midway point and, coincidentally, the Vikings’ fanbase is at a crossroads. There are still die-hard tankers on one side who want to tear everything down and resume their losing ways. But the first winning streak of the season coinciding with most of the rest of the NFC falling on their faces has the never-say-die segment of the Vikings’ fanatics pointing toward playoff possibilities.
The grim reality is that things are heading in a direction that will leave a lot of people unhappy on (ahem) both sides of the aisle.
If you’ve been a Minnesota sports fan long enough, you already know how this will probably play out: somewhere in the middle. No-man’s land. Or as Paul Harvey — as well as a certain mid-day radio host in this market, whose famous nickname I coined many years ago — might say: “The best of the lousiest and the lousiest of the best.”
Indeed, no team should aspire to be average any more than anyone should aspire to be the common man. It accomplishes nothing and perpetuates mediocrity. Yet that’s where things are heading – just good enough to miss out on a top-10 pick (and possible franchise quarterback) yet not quite good enough to make a meaningful playoff run. Neat.
To put this in more concrete terms, let’s use the projected NFL draft order as a guide.
There are several websites out there that track the order week-by-week for the cottage industry known as the NFL Draft. One of the better ones is tankathon.com, which includes lines of demarcation to represent the separation between teams that project to finish in and out of the playoffs in addition to where each team statistically projects to pick in the first round. The Vikings’ win over the Lions knocked them out of the top 10 in the draft (for now). However, at 3-5, they would still need several things to continue breaking right in order to make the playoffs.
Even picking in the “lucky” 13th spot, as they are currently projected to do, some mock drafters still have BYU’s fast-rising quarterback Zach Wilson still being available (and being snapped up by the Vikings). However, the shuffling will continue for nine weeks. Wilson’s trajectory has him taking dead aim at the top 10 while the Vikings are heading into the vast wasteland of the teens in terms of the draft order.
Obviously, the Schizophrenia of 2020 in general and of this Vikings squad, in particular, complicates any sort of long-range forecasting. They can look like an injury-ravaged, uninspired, overmatched team one week and resemble world-beaters the next. Even within the games that they win handily, they can have two of their punts blocked. Who does that?
From our mid-season vantage point, let’s take a gander at what lies ahead for your Vikings:
- Week 10 at Chicago: The Bears have lost three in a row and appear headed in the opposite direction of the Vikings, who actually opened as Vegas favorites in this one. Then again, this is a prime-time game in Chicago – a place where the Vikings have lost 16 of their 20 games since 2000. The Bears have won the last four games in this series overall. A loss could get the Vikings back into the top 10 of the projected draft order.
- Week 11 vs. Dallas: They nearly caught the Steelers sleeping on Sunday, but this 2-7 Cowboys team is awful without Dak Prescott. This should be a Vikings win.
- Week 12 vs. Carolina: The Panthers have lost four in a row and might have just lost Christian McCaffrey to another injury – this time his shoulder. All Vikings fans can look forward to Teddy Bridgewater‘s return to the Twin Cities… and some Vikings fans can look forward to possibly another win.
- Week 13 vs. Jacksonville: The Jaguars have lost seven in a row and have turned over their offense (at least for now) to Jake Luton. It’s unclear how the Vikings would lose this game.
- Week 14 at Tampa Bay: This one has been a projected loss for the Vikings for much of the season, and probably remains as such. But did you see the dumpster fire performance the Buccaneers displayed on Sunday night?
- Week 15 vs. Chicago: The Vikings entered this season 6-6 against the Bears under Zimmer, so if they lose in the Windy City on Monday night in Week 10, this one will maybe, probably be a win for the Vikings. Possibly.
- Week 16 at New Orleans: Before you go ahead and mark this down as an automatic loss, remember that Zimmer’s Vikings seem to have the Saints’ number. Also, the Saints might have their playoff seeding wrapped up in a pretty package under the tree by this Christmas Day game.
- Week 17 at Detroit: If either Week 9 or the Vikings’ six-game winning streak in this series are any indications at all, this one will be a win for the Purple.
Given that back-of-the-napkin schedule analysis, the Vikings’ destiny in 2020 appears to be somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7… if current trends hold. In such a scenario, neither the “tear it down and rebuild” nor the “let’s make the playoffs!” precincts of Vikings nation will be happy.
Such a record probably lands them outside of the top 10 on draft day. Furthermore, when looking at the NFC teams currently just ahead of the Vikings in the playoff standings – including a 49ers team destroyed by injuries, the flailing Bears and a Cardinals team that has to face Buffalo and Seattle the next two weeks, we can’t completely rule out an NFC team outside the East with an 8-8 or worse record making the playoffs. But to what end? To get bounced in the first round?
In short, neither side has a clear path to victory in Vikings land. But just remember, these are still projections. Vikings fans need to wait until all the results are certified before knowing exactly what it is they’re going to be unhappy about this time.
