It’s finally the time of year that we’ve waited seven long months for. Football season is upon us with Week Zero (still don’t understand why that’s a thing) of college football having kicked off, and meaningful games every week until February. With that I’m here to offer my humble advice on good and bad ways to approach betting on football, as well as some of my favorite futures bets across the football landscape.
DO: Know what you’re up against
Football is the most bet-on sport in the United States by an enormous margin, and ranks second globally. With that much money on the table you can be sure that odds makers and sportsbooks are working overtime to drain every last drop of profit. The sides, moneylines, and totals for football are the sharpest numbers in the world and the most difficult to beat in the world. Okay, maybe not tougher to beat than Eastern European tennis matches that have been fixed, but you get my point (if you happen to know the fix on those matches though, my DM’s are open). And those numbers are not a hint at which team the sportsbook thinks is better, they’re designed solely to generate equal action on both sides of the number so that the book is guaranteed a profit.
If that wasn’t daunting enough, the professional sports betting conglomerates are there to mess with you and take advantage of your square opinion on the game. These organizations – equipped with more inside information than even the sportsbooks could dream of having – will throw hundreds of thousands of dollars at the side of a line they have no intention of actually betting. That’s designed to move the number incrementally in their favor for the million(s) dollar bet, as well as throw everyone off their scent.
So what can be done in the face of all these obstacles stacked against you? Well, if you don’t feel like flipping a coin to decide your plays every week, here are some more Do’s and Don’ts to help you develop better strategies for betting this game we all love so much.
DON’T: Assume you know something nobody else does
Never bet on a game because you think you’re blessed with some key piece of information. Believe me, whatever prized nugget of inside info you think is flying under the radar this week has already been disseminated far and wide. The risk room at every sportsbook in the country has known about it for a while now and already baked it into the number you’re seeing on the board.
I don’t care if you work in the locker room for the Buccaneers and know Tom Brady has a hangnail, or that Gisele made him sleep on the couch last night. Somebody else in that locker room is on the payroll of a betting conglomerate and has fed that information to the pros, who in turn have changed their betting patterns, which has been picked up by the sportsbook causing them to adjust their number. Information is obviously important, but never overvalue one tidbit or angle, and never assume the market isn’t already clued in.
DO: Take expert advice carefully
While I’ll always give a rational breakdown of my picks, I certainly don’t have all of the answers – nobody does. Beware of anyone claiming to have inside information or some infallible system, and instead use an aggregate of reliable sources and information. Definitely beware of whichever former player or coach is on your favorite pre-game show making picks. They definitely know this game and which team is better than which, but aren’t acquainted with the betting market aspect and aren’t making those picks with a full grasp of the great equalizer: the point spread.
DON’T: Pay for picks
Seriously, just don’t. You know what the guys selling picks are good at? Sales. They usually have a decent grasp of football, but their true talent is in convincing people that they have all the answers. Oh they had a big week last week, or a strong record last season? Cool, but it’s a new week and a new season, and they’re only going to use those records to sell you certainty in an uncertain world. Familiarize yourself with Vegas Dave for the perfect example: a guy who’s rich not because he’s good at sports betting, but because he’s good at convincing people he is.
DO: Make your own lines
Really, give it a shot, at the very least it’s an extremely useful exercise. Without seeing the spread or total for a game, use the information you have to come up with a number you think is reasonable, then compare it to the actual line. Did you come up with a number that’s more or less advantageous to you as the bettor? In what ways did that impact your opinion of the game and your willingness to bet on it? This doesn’t need to be your sole method of deciding what to bet on, but at the very least it will get you to think differently and more critically about the lines you’re seeing.
DON’T: Try to know the whole landscape
There are 32 NFL teams, 130 FBS college teams, and 125 FCS college teams, which makes for a lot of games every week. There are lines available for the full game, first quarter, second quarter, first half, second half, third quarter, and fourth quarter on the side, moneyline, and total for all of them.
Anyone with a day job and more than zero hobbies can’t possibly keep up with all of that, so I’d suggest specializing. Whether that’s a few teams, a couple college conferences, whatever you feel comfortable with, the in-depth knowledge and understanding needed to be successful at betting comes a lot easier that way.
DO: Keep teasers simple
People who have been betting teasers solely online are spoiled, so don’t waste your good fortune. At most online shops you’ll find that a two-team six point teaser carries standard -110 juice, but go to any Las Vegas sportsbook and you’ll have to lay juice in the -150 range for the same bet. The reason is professional bettors absolutely clean up on those teasers, and Vegas books have had to adjust the juice to limit the damage.
That should tell you to keep your teasers to two teams and six points. The temptation is understandable to add more legs, but the payout structure isn’t commensurate with the level of risk so keep it simple.
DON’T: Chase moneyline parlays
There’s a reason why survivor and knock-out pools are so difficult, and it’s the same reason we have the phrase “any given Sunday” in reference to the NFL. Upsets are a feature, not a bug. And when that obvious winner of a -300, -500, or even -1000 favorite goes down, they take your cleverly-crafted parlay down with them.
The thought process and temptation is understandable, especially when it feels like you just need to pick a few easy winners for a plus-money return. But the massive juice isn’t boosting the reward enough to justify the risk.
DO: Pay attention to key numbers
Point spreads and totals for the NFL exist within a very narrow range, especially considering the range of possible outcomes. The vast majority of NFL sides are set in the single digits, and the vast majority of totals are set in the mid-to-high 40’s. That creates key numbers at the increments of football scoring (3, 6, and 7 points), as well as combinations of those numbers. These act as resistance points or speed bumps in the market, requiring a lot of momentum to get over or through them.
College numbers are different because they need to account for a wider range of outcomes, higher-scoring games, and those Alabama vs. Citadel games with a 50-point spread. However, the basic principles of numbers being based on increments of football scoring still apply, even more so in the case of high totals. And as with the NFL, more games have a final margin of 3 points than any other number.
DO: Watch line movement
When I say this I mean really pay attention, closely, from the opening number to the moment you’re placing your bet. Sports betting lines are a market not unlike Wall Street in that fluctuation is driven by how much value is given to information and performance. The number on Monday is going to go through some changes by the weekend and you should carefully consider why.
Specifically, lines only move because of respected money. Let’s say a thousand people bet ten bucks on the same number at the same sportsbook. That wouldn’t have anywhere near the impact as one sharp bettor placing one bet for ten grand. So when you see that line move at all – whether it’s a full point, half point, or even just a change in the juice – know that the sportsbook is moving it in reaction to or anticipation of smart money coming in. Marry that movement up with the news of the day and you’ll have a much better understanding of what changes a number and in what ways. And on a related note, always shop around for the best number as much as possible.
NFL Divisional Winner Futures
NFC East – Washington Football Team (+220)
I don’t trust my Cowboys and need the emotional hedge anyway. I know, supposedly nobody wins this division twice in a row, but Washington has too much talent on defense, a veteran QB, and elite young skill players. They should be the division favorites.
NFC West – San Francisco 49ers (+190)
This should be the most competitive and talented division in the NFL. Let’s not forget the 49ers were leading in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl just 19 months ago. Injuries and COVID wrecked their 2020 season, but the talent is there and the coaching is solid so I expect big things from the 49ers this season.
AFC West – Denver Broncos (+650)
The Broncos have a legitimate claim to the best defense in the NFL, certainly a strong claim to the best secondary. It’s strange to me that they’ve named Teddy Bridgewater the starting QB, but the schedule is easy and the Chiefs are a skill position injury or two from being a .500 team. This big a number just offers too much value to pass up.
Super Bowl Futures
San Francisco 49ers (+1400) – A team with the experience of getting to the big game still fresh, plus being battle-hardened by the NFC West will be dangerous come January. These are really solid odds for that dynamic.
Cleveland Browns (+1600) – They might have to do it as a wild card team, but the Browns should be one of the best in the league on both sides of the ball. Despite a litany of injuries they were fairly close to knocking off Kansas City in the playoffs last season, so building on that success with a healthy team can get them a long way.
Dallas Cowboys (+3000) – Yeah it’s a homer pick, but I gotta do it. Let’s assume full health and optimum performance out of this offense for a moment. That’s some scary stuff, like 2019 Chiefs level of scary. The defense could stink like it usually does, but an unstoppable offense and a 30-1 payout is just too tempting.
College Football National Championship Futures
Georgia (+500) – The ‘Dawgs finally have an offense to go with their elite defense, one with a QB who can actually make downfield plays. That’s an option for Kirby Smart’s offense that hasn’t been available to him since he chose Jake Fromm over Justin Fields (oops). All the weapons are there on both sides of the ball, the schedule is favorable, and in the SEC just making the title game gives you a decent shot at a CFP invite.
Oklahoma (+600) – The Sooners are in the opposite situation as Georgia, as they finally have a defense to go with their elite offense. They also have the Heisman favorite, a scary two-headed monster at running back, and all their toughest opponents at home. A one-loss Big 12 champion should get into the CFP this year.
Iowa State (+3000) – Another homer pick at 30-1 odds! Yes it contradicts my Oklahoma pick, but if the ‘Clones can knock off Oklahoma in Norman they’ll have vaulted themselves right into a CFP invite. With the most returning production of any team in FBS, All-American candidates on both sides of the ball, plus excellent coaching this team is for real.
Oregon (+5000) – It’s been a minute since the PAC12 got any love from the CFP, and like Iowa State the Ducks would have to buck the trend of playoff teams coming from the preseason AP top-6. But Oregon has been dominating the west coast recruiting battle the past couple years, Kayvon Thibodeaux is the best defensive player in the country, and a stronger conference overall should strengthen their metrics-based resume.
Heisman Trophy Futures
JT Daniels, QB, Georgia (+600) – If Georgia has the offensive season many are predicting in the new high-scoring SEC, Daniels will be the reason. The USC transfer finally got healthy late last season and quickly put on a show. If he gets elite WR George Pickens back this season to bolster his already talented group of receivers, watch out.
Kedon Slovis, QB, USC (+1700) – Big-name school, Power 5 conference, huge media market, incredible receivers, oh, and a hell of a player. Slovis can lead a late comeback better than anyone in college football, and might need to frequently with a suspect USC defense. That all spells stuffed stat lines, so don’t be surprised to see him invited to New York.
D’Eriq King, QB, Miami (+2000) – Everyone loves a comeback story, and King could be a great one this season. After tearing an ACL in Miami’s bowl game, King is back ahead of schedule and blessed with maybe the best receiver corps in the country. The ‘Canes should make noise in the ACC this season and challenge for the conference title, with King shredding the league’s bad defenses all season long.
