Locks
NCAA Basketball – Boise St./Wyoming over 147.5 (-110):
This total is far too low given the offensive and defensive statistics for these teams. Both Boise State and Wyoming are top-100 in shooting percentage and top 40 in PPG. Wyoming, however, is 263rd in field goal percentage defense and allows 75 PPG against the 331st-ranked strength of schedule.
That’s not good news against a Broncos offense that has been heating up lately with 86.2 PPG in their six conference games this far. As a result, Boise is 5-1 to the over in those games, while Wyoming is 7-2 to the over against this specific number on the season. Boise State’s quality offense should have an easy time against a young and poor Wyoming defense — and since this game is at altitude in Laramie, I think the defensive effort will suffer in a pretty easy over.
Degenerates
NCAA Football – 2-Team 6-Point Teaser; Ohio State +14.5, Over 69.5 (-110):
Honestly, I was tempted to make this a lock, but after last week I’m going to remain a little more selective with the locks, especially in such a public spot like the National Championship.
For this total, I’m much more in agreement with the opening number of 77. Alabama against top-10 metrics-based offenses is allowing 52 PPG, and Ohio State checks in at 2nd overall, right behind the Tide. And if Jaylen Waddle plays for Alabama there’s really no limit to what that offense can do, so moving the total under 10 touchdowns presents a lot of value.
Alabama’s struggles on defense are also why I like getting the Buckeyes catching two touchdowns and the hook here. Florida proved in the SEC championship that the back door is wide open. I think Ohio State can exploit the middle of the field all night with tight ends and slot receivers like Florida did, as Alabama will be focusing on Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to the outside.
It’s also worth mentioning that Ohio State hasn’t lost a game by more than one possession in 27 months. I actually think Ohio State is a live dog here, and if you can find it, the alternate line of Buckeyes -3.5 is +340 and could be worthy of a small bet in addition to the Ohio State moneyline. There just simply isn’t an angle to profit on Alabama winning this game other than a complete blowout.
Tiny Nick is 97-50 ATS (+47.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
