Locks
NCAA Basketball – St. Peter’s @ Siena -4 (-110):
I’m very surprised at this line given how these teams are playing and how they’ve performed in this particular spot. Siena’s season is still young — they’ve only played six games in due to COVID — but they’re undefeated and looking like the best team in the Metro. The efficiency metrics also highlight an important disparity here, as Siena is 32nd in offensive efficiency compared to 274th for St Peter’s, a gap that is too large for such a relatively short point spread.
I’m also looking at the 1-5-1 road ATS record for St. Peter’s, plus the fact that they’ve performed worse in the first leg of road doubleheaders. This is also the potential return for Jalen Pickett from a hamstring injury which would cause this line to jump, but I like the Saints here even without him.
NCAA Basketball – Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb -5.5 (-110):
We’re a long way from the Gulf Coast squad of “Dunk City” fame — this team is really struggling right now. The Eagles came off a COVID hiatus to lose two straight at home to D1 newcomer Bellarmine, a team that Lipscomb beat twice on the road. Gulf Coast has a tough time against strong efficiency offenses and that’s exactly what Lipscomb has been lately, posting a 1.142 points per possession mark in their last three games, one of the highest in the country.
There is also a zig-zag factor to consider here. The Bison have performed an average of 19 points better in the first leg of their two home doubleheaders. I see Gulf Coast struggling to keep pace in this one, and a strong offensive showing from Lipscomb, leading to a comfortable win.
NCAA Basketball – Rice/UAB under 141.5 (-110):
I don’t usually like betting unders. But fortunately, all tickets cash the same, and everything about this game is screaming under. These are two of the best under teams in the country, with UAB going 8-2-1 to the under, and Rice 9-3 to the under. In fact, UAB has not had a total go above this number against nine straight D1 opponents.
It’s no wonder when you dig deeper into the team metrics. UAB is the best defensive efficiency team in the country and is 7th best in opponent effective field goal percentage. This total looks like it’s too reflective of the games Rice has played against non-D1 and Southland Conference opponents which have inflated their scoring metrics. Once they finally matched up with a slow-paced and poor shooting Old Dominion team last weekend, both games finished well under.
UAB will dictate tempo in this one and we should see another grind-it-out affair, so take the under.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Milwaukee @ Cleveland State -3.5 (-110)
It’s been a remarkable run for Cleveland State through the Horizon League so far, and I think it continues here against Milwaukee. The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in league play, including four outright wins as an underdog. It doesn’t look like a fluke either, as this team hung with both Toledo and Ohio State in early season road contests.
Milwaukee was finally exposed last week in dropping two home games to Purdue-Fort Wayne, the first team they’ve faced that can actually shoot. Cleveland State will make it tough on them defensively however, as they only allow 61 PPG in conference home games. I just don’t think the oddsmakers have figured out Cleveland State is a legitimate contender for the Horizon title, so this is a great spot to buy low on them and lay a short price.
Tiny Nick is 111-61 ATS (+49.1Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
