Locks
NCAA Football (2 Units) 2 Team 6 Point Teaser; Iowa State Cyclones -1, Pitt Panthers -3 (-120):
ISU -1
What day is it? Doesn’t matter because it’s still Brocktober and that isn’t going to change today. Brock Purdy is 12-2 in the month of October since taking over ISU’s starting QB job and he’s never lost to a team with a losing record in the month of October. It’s also the end of the era known as “Brocktober” as Purdy will play his last October game of his career today. Combine that with Breece Hall on the ground and West Virginia doesn’t stand a chance.
Pitt -3
I won’t lie, I don’t know a ton about this team but I’m willing to drink the Kool-Aid. Pitt has clearly exceeded expectations in the otherwise depleted ACC and they’re not about to throw away their season against a trash Miami Hurricanes team. Play it safe and tease it down to a short three-point spread that Pitt should have no trouble covering at home.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Michigan @ Michigan State +4.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FOX
Ask yourself if you trust Jim Harbaugh in big games during the second half of the season. Nobody except die-hard Michigan fans should whatsoever, and this is a huge rivalry spot where the home team has a big advantage, especially on this number.
For that reason, I have to trust that Michigan State will be competitive enough in this game to keep it close, if not pull the outright win. The Spartans have the better quarterback in this matchup with Payton Thorne, plus one of the best running backs in the country with Kenneth Walker III. And there just seems to be a vibe around this MSU team as they keep winning tough games, especially when they’ve been counted out.
This game projects to be a low-scoring slugfest, with two teams that make a living on running the ball and playing excellent defense. Getting this many points with the home team in that kind of game – in a raucous rivalry situation no less – is something I just can’t pass up.
NBA (1.5 Units) Anthony Edwards Over 24 Points (-110): 8 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Is it time to admit there is a new sheriff in town? Edwards has been refreshing in Minnesota with not only his play but also his attitude. And if he is going to continue taking 22-plus shots per game, it makes it all the more fun to take his over and cheer on my favorite player in the NBA. Don’t fix what isn’t broken and Edwards is definitely not broken.
NBA (0.75 Units) NY Knicks -5.5 @ Pelicans (-110): 6 PM CT
What team is more fun to cheer for than the New York Knicks? On top of what is a pretty fun young roster with some veteran leadership mixed in, they also added an undervalued Kemba Walker who has also benefited early from a change of scenery. On the other side, the Pelicans are on the second leg of a back to back and outside of Brandon Ingram they really don’t have any pure scorers. I’m going to continue to fade this team until further notice so let’s go Thibs.
NCAA Football (1.5 Units) Texas Tech/Oklahoma over 66.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
Welcome to the highest-scoring rivalry in the country. This matchup has produced some epic shootouts over the years, and today’s total is too low for how these teams play.
No meeting between these teams has gone under this total since 2012, and the eight games since have averaged 86.2 points. Texas Tech isn’t quite the same team as they’ve been in the past, but they still have a defense that’s 99th in points allowed and have given up 70 and 52 in conference games already this season. That should make them easy pickings for an Oklahoma team that sleep-walked through the first half last week and still scored 35 points in the game. The Sooners are sure to have fixed whatever issues caused that near-collapse to Kansas and should come out firing here.
Tech also just fired their head coach this week, naming offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie the interim coach. Spots like this usually see the interim coach willing to chuck it around the yard, which is a great recipe for points. Whether we see a classic back-and-forth affair between these teams, or if Oklahoma does it by themselves, this game is going over the total.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Duke/Wake Forest over 71 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ACC Network
There’s just one way this game stays under: Wake Forest misses the game because they aren’t done scoring on Army yet.
Fresh off hanging 70 on a fairly decent defense, the Demon Deacons are back for more. Today they get an even easier path to offensive fireworks against this Duke defense that’s 99th in total yards allowed and 118th in pass yards allowed. Wake quarterback Sam Hartman is on fire lately averaging 371 yards in his past three games, and his offense seems to get better every week – now up to 16th in passing yards and fifth in scoring.
But the Demon Deacon defense keeps getting worse on a weekly basis and can’t stop the run, ranking 119th in rush yards allowed. Wake has surrendered 37 and 56 points their past two games, both against excellent rushing teams, and that’s exactly what Duke does best offensively. This game won’t be as crazy as last week for Wake Forest, but they’ll give up plenty of points while keeping the pedal down, so I see this one going over.
NCAA Football (0.75 Units) Penn State @ Ohio State -18.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC
The Nittany Lions are off consecutive heartbreaking losses that dashed their CFP dreams in shocking fashion. I question how much they’ll have left in the tank this week, especially with their coach seeming to have one foot out the door. Both of those tough losses also came against teams with little to no offensive firepower, especially in the passing game.
Now they’re up against the highest-scoring and perhaps most balanced offense in the country that’s dropped 50-plus in four straight games. C.J. Stroud has rekindled some Heisman buzz with his stellar QB play, and TreVeyon Henderson might be the best running back in the country, certainly able to take advantage of a defense that just gave up 357 yards on the ground. The Ohio State defense has also put it together at the same time the offense has, resulting in the Buckeyes winning those last four games by an average 46.8-point margin.
Regardless of what is said about his status PSU QB Sean Clifford is not healthy, and they stand no chance of producing enough to keep it close without him at full strength. The Buckeyes are on a mission to destroy everything in their path, they’ve been dominant in all phases for a month, and they’ll roll again tonight to show off on national TV. Lay the heavy chalk here.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Oregon State -1.5 @ Cal (-110): 6 PM CT
This is a degenerate for sure but I’m still taking it. Oregon State quarterback Chance Nolan has been good to me so far this season when I’ve taken him and I just don’t believe in this 2-5 Cal team despite their defense playing much better as of late. Nolan and the Beavers should be able to outpace a weak Cal team en route to an easy cover of a short number.
Tiny Nick is 420-321 ATS (+88.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
