Locks
NFL/NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)
LA Rams/Seattle Seahawks Over 48: 7:15 PM CT on NFL Network
These teams have played relatively lower-scoring games in recent seasons, but this is a different Los Angeles Rams team and the same old awful Seattle Seahawks defense. The Seahawks come into this game allowing the most overall yards per game, most rushing yards, the 5th-most passing yards, and 2nd-most yards per individual drive. The Rams with Matthew Stafford, in need of a bounce back after an ugly loss, should pick that defense apart.
But Los Angeles has their own defensive issues, ranking a sneaky-low 20th in defensive DVOA, 27th in total yards allowed and 29th in yards allowed per drive. The Seahawks appear to have fixed some of their 2nd-half offensive woes last week against a statistically better defense than they’ll face tonight, so I’m confident that they can put up points at home. Being able to move this total down through several key numbers is a big advantage, and I see bad defense getting us enough points for this teased number.
Coastal Carolina/Arkansas St. Over 67: 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU
Speaking of bad defense, say hello to Arkansas State, the team allowing the most yards and 2nd-most points in the country. The Red Wolves have already played three games this year with over 75 total points, and tonight have the ultimate bad matchup with Coastal Carolina coming to town. The Chanticleers have the highest big-play rate in the country and faces an ASU defense that’s 127th in big plays allowed.
I also like this spot for what Coastal needs to do, which is put up style points by running teams out. They have a bye next week, don’t need to rest starters, and won’t be shy about running up the score or keeping the pedal down late. Red Wolves quarterback James Blackman is a Florida State transfer who can move it with his arm and legs, so their offense with the 5th-most passing yards nationally will definitely put up points in garbage time. But getting the 2nd-highest-scoring team in the country against a defense this bad is just a rare opportunity. And being able to move the total through several key numbers to below where it opened makes this an easy decision.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 392-301 ATS (+87.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
