Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Charlotte Hornets Over 221 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
One of the best teams to the under visits one of the best teams to the over in this game. In a strange NBA season so far, I’ll look to the past result between these teams as the best indicator for tonight.
The NBA under trend is real, and the Cavaliers have been doing their part recently with 5 straight games going under the total. The Hornets are one of the few teams on the opposite side of that trend, owing their 5-2 over record to a quick pace, high shot rate, and the best shooting percentage from deep. Charlotte also grades out at 28th in defensive rating so far, and even the Cavs should be able to put up points against them like they did in the first meeting, one of Cleveland’s two overs on the year.
It’s a tough scheduling spot for defensive effort tonight as Cleveland just traveled cross-country, while Charlotte is off a high-scoring game last night. With a 5-point discount off the first meeting’s total that saw 235 total points, I think this game goes against that league-wide under trend.
Degenerates
NBA Orlando Magic @ Minnesota Timberwolves -9 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Timberwolves seem to be alternating impressive wins with disappointing losses. Tonight’s game should theoretically put them on the impressive win side of that pendulum, and hosting one of the league’s worst teams always helps.
The Orlando Magic come into this game with the second-worst ATS record and margin of victory in the NBA and are the kind of team Minnesota needs to make statements against. The hot-and-cold Wolves offense should have every chance to warm up here against a team dead last in defensive rating. If the Wolves are able to continue the impressive start they’ve had defensively (6th in defensive rating and 3rd in opponent effective field goal rate) then this could turn into a rout.
I definitely need to see more consistency out of the Timberwolves before counting on them with any kind of regularity. But the Magic are a long way from being a decent team, so Minnesota should capitalize and work toward proving themselves with a double-digit victory.
Tiny Nick is 424-327 ATS (+85.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
