Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) NY Giants +11 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
It’s extremely tough to go against Tom Brady in a bounce-back spot, but there are simply too many factors pointing me towards the Giants in this game.
Let’s start with the trends, which are heavily in New York’s favor here. The Giants are just excellent as a road underdog: 20-6 ATS run overall, 9-2 ATS with Joe Judge as a coach, and 13-5 ATS with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Plus it’s seeming like Brady in his advanced age would prefer to just get the early bird special and go to bed, as he’s 0-11 ATS in his past 11 primetime games.
The Giants are also getting back to health, with Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney returning for this game. They’ll be facing a Bucs defense that’s already struggled to stop mediocre offenses the past couple of weeks and is now missing key run-stuffer Vita Vea. I like how the Giants defense has played recently, allowing just 13 PPG the past 3 weeks, and they should be able to keep this one inside such a big number.
NBA (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+170)
Minnesota Timberwolves -150 @ New Orleans Pelicans: 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Okay Timberwolves, I’m ready to get hurt again. Four impressive games in a row has me trusting that Minnesota has figured some things out on both ends of the floor. The Wolves are on a 5-1 ATS run after a dismal stretch and find themselves in their only profitable role of the season: road favorites where they’re 4-1 ATS. But I’m only asking them to win this game, as I think the spread is creeping up a little too high for my comfort level.
Minnesota played one of their worst games of the year last time they saw the Pelicans, so they should be motivated to atone for that performance. It’s been ugly for New Orleans since then, and they now have the 2nd-worst margin of victory in the NBA at -8.8 PPG. The Wolves should be able to take this newfound confidence on the road tonight and get the straight-up victory against a bad team.
Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls -160: 7:00 PM CT on NBC Sports-Chicago
To close this parlay, I’m just asking a good home team to beat a bad road team. Indiana is now just 2-9 on the road, but they have a tendency to keep it close, which is why I’m only looking for a straight-up result here. The Bulls are 6-2 at home this season and playing impressively balanced basketball. They’re top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, plus have been shooting the lights out from deep.
Chicago’s small-ball approach should be a matchup advantage against a Pacers squad that’s struggled against teams with good backcourts. Indiana has just struck me as a mediocre-at-best team this season, with a defense that’s prone to major lapses. The Pacers are yet to win a conference road game, and I see that continuing here tonight.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Ohio State vs. Seton Hall -1.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on FS1
These teams are headed in opposite directions right now, and a rising Seton Hall team should be able to take advantage.
Ohio State is simply not the best version of themselves right now, severely missing injured stars Justice Sueing and Seth Towns. They’ve ridden forward EJ Liddell this season, but he should be somewhat neutralized by a big frontcourt for Seton Hall. And the Pirates are just feeling themselves right now, especially after knocking off an even better Big 10 team in Michigan last week. Their star guards are all very experienced, have a green light from anywhere, and are also the main factor in Hall ranking 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency.
There’s a reason why the unranked team is favored over the ranked team on a neutral court here. I’m a big believer in this Pirates team and think they capitalize against a weakened and down opponent.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Bellarmine vs. UCLA -19 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
There seems to be a neutral court discount in this game that’s being played in Las Vegas. But that’s much more of a home game for UCLA than Bellarmine, and the Bruins have been extremely impressive.
UCLA has crushed their non-conference opponents so far, winning those three games by an average 31 point margin. All those games have been played at home so this is a change for the Bruins, but they’re just too talented not to blow out this cupcake opponent. Credit Bellarmine for scheduling a brutal slate as they’ve already faced Purdue and Gonzaga on the season. But they lost those games by an average 35.5 point margin, haven’t shown an ability to score consistently against anyone, and should be in for another beatdown.
I just don’t understand the line here, and I see the Bruins running away with this game, so I’ll happily lay the big number with them.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) TCU vs. Santa Clara +3.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on CBSSN
I’m extremely high on Santa Clara this season, as the Broncos have started out the year on fire. TCU has some metrics overinflating their profile, and I think they might be in trouble here against real competition.
The Horned Frogs are 6th nationally in defensive efficiency, an impressive number until you factor in the cupcake schedule they’ve faced. It’s a good thing TCU can play defense because their shooting percentage against that same cupcake schedule is 269th in the country. They’ll have their defense tested tonight against a Santa Clara team that’s 9th in offensive efficiency. The Broncos have faced a much tougher schedule as well, but are still 4-0 ATS while winning by an average 18.8 point margin.
This neutral site tournament in California becomes more of a home atmosphere for Santa Clara, and with how they’ve started the season I’ll gladly take the points here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 455-350 ATS (+87.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
