Locks
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals/Washington Nationals Over 9 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
I wish the wind was blowing out in DC tonight, but it’s probably a smaller issue. I’m hoping that doesn’t matter for the league’s best over team, as the Nationals are now 65.2% to the over on the season which includes an incredible 24-9-2 at home. This team just generates runs while also giving them up in bunches, scoring the most in the league while allowing the 3rd-most, and it often doesn’t seem like pitching matchups matter.
If pitching is going to matter tonight, it will be because Mitch Spence is being sent out by the Royals as this club is desperate for arms. Spence simply doesn’t belong on a big league mound, and this ultra-productive Nats lineup should jump all over him. The Royals don’t hit lefties particularly well, but Andrew Alvarez is far from elite and doesn’t pitch deep into games. So bullpens will definitely be a factor, and these are two of the worst in baseball so I see crooked numbers being added on throughout this game.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Fire @ Minnesota Lynx -14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesrs): 7:00 PM CT on Victory+
Despite playing extremely well in a tough situation, the Lynx’s loss on Saturday had to be disappointing for them. It most likely knocks them out of the Commissioner’s Cup final unless something crazy happens with the Aces, but just in case they should probably try to run Portland out of Target Center tonight. The Lynx do that to most teams, as they’re 5-2 SU and ATS at home, winning by 11.7 points on average, and posting a league-best plus-8.2 average ATS margin.
Four of the past five for Minnesota at Target Center have been wins by at least this margin, including against some of the league’s best teams. And after giving up 100 points on Saturday, the league’s best defensive team should look to clamp down on a Portland offense that hasn’t been pretty on the road. The Fire haven’t been particularly competitive against high level competition since the Commissioner’s Cup kicked off, and I’m willing to bet that the Lynx are looking to deliver a beating here.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces Team Total Over 90.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on USA Network
This is going to be a tough test for the Aces as they visit a Dallas team that allows the fewest points per game at home in the league. That of course is heavily impacted by schedule luck in getting several weaker offenses to visit Dallas so far this season, while they’ve had 90 dropped on them by the Lynx and 87 by the Aces the last time they were in town. That previous game against the Aces saw Las Vegas cough up a big lead with a terrible second half, which I don’t see repeating here.
The Aces should be out for revenge, and with the groove they’re in offensively right now it’s probably a bad time to see them on the schedule. The past three games for Las Vegas have seen them roll up 101, 105, and 100 points, the last of which came against the league’s best defensive team. By beating the Lynx on Saturday, Vegas leads the West for Commissioner’s Cup standings and needs to beef up their average margin tiebreaker in case something goes awry for them. That should lead them to push all game long tonight and reach this team total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-18 (+1.06 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
