Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Brady Singer Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
It’s no secret that the Mets are a giant disappointment, squandering all this high-priced talent with an ugly season so far. There was plenty of ugly last night as they were blanked 12-0 by the Reds, but I have to expect that a bounce back is coming. This is actually a great situation to get that bounce back, as last night’s game was always going to be tough against Cincy ace Chase Burns.
Tonight not so much, as they get face Singer who tends to give up a lot of hits which fuels his 5.61 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He’s 9-4 over this total on the season, allowing an average of 6.2 hits per game, and just allowed the Padres to get him for 6 hits and they’re dead last in batting average against righties. The Mets should have some pride here after being shut out, experience positive regression, and get some of those expensive hitters to rack up hits in this one.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Houston Astros First 5 Innings Under 4 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
This pitching matchup is intriguing for all kinds of reasons, and should produce a very low-scoring start to this game. Hunter Brown finally returns off the 60-day IL for the Astros who desperately need him, and I think he’s very capable of mowing down this disappointing Detroit offense. Brown is an elite talent who can rack up strikeouts in a hurry, and I expect him to have a great start against his hometown team.
Speaking of reunions, Framber Valdez returns to Houston for the first time since leaving in free agency and should be highly motivated to face his former squad. Valdez has been alternating good and bad starts for a while now, and fortunately it’s time for a good one tonight. Add the motivation element to the fact that Houston is just an average team against lefties like Framber, and I think the recipe is there for a very quiet first five innings.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Mitch Keller Alt Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Keller just doesn’t have it right now, and he’s walking into another tough start tonight. The Pirates righty has allowed 7, 7, and 10 hits in his past 3 starts, along with a ton of runs, the worst of which came against the Triple-A Twins. So everyone’s eating when Keller takes the mound, and now he has another very capable opposing lineup to deal with.
The Athletics are a top-10 offense against righties, but it’s home cooking that makes them scary. This is the best team by batting average, OPS, and weighted metrics in home games, which they showed with an 11-spot last night. I think they stay hot while Keller stays cold, and I’m willing to go to the alternate market for his hits prop tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-18 (+1.91 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
