Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/04

Photo Credit: Brett Davis (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Alabama vs. Georgia -6.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on CBS

This spread is made out of respect for years of the Alabama program, but I disagree with it because I just don’t see this Alabama team meeting that standard. It’s just hard for oddsmakers to put the Tide as enough of an underdog because they’ve made them a favorite for 92 straight games, but I see that creating an opportunity here.

Georgia’s defense will determine this game. It is far and away the best I can remember seeing in college football, having allowed no more than 17 points all season in the stacked SEC. They’ll be able to limit Alabama QB Bryce Young in the way that frustrates him most: stack the field with athletic linebackers while holding up in coverage on the outside. That will allow their scary good defensive line to get pressure and stymie the Alabama offense.

Georgia has only been in a single one-score game this year while the Tide have been in four, which is more than the past six seasons combined. That confirms to me that Alabama just isn’t as good as we’ve come to expect, and I see Georgia establishing itself as the clear top team in the country today.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Wake Forest 1st Half Team Total Over 16.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

The full game total here of 71 points is a number that’s just extremely difficult to reach, with totals this year of 70-plus going 19-4 to the under. But I’m expecting plenty of offensive success in this game, so I want to drill down to this more achievable number.

Wake Forest wants to play fast, score a lot of points early, and take advantage of the matchup here against the nation’s 112th pass defense. They’re well equipped to do it with the 3rd highest-scoring offense in the country, one that tends to jump on teams early. The Demon Deacons are 9-1 over this number against their power-5 opponents this season, averaging 22.9 first-half points. They’ll be forced to respond and keep pace early with a Pittsburgh offense that’s also as potent as it gets.

I’m a big believer in this Wake Forest offense behind QB Sam Hartman, and I think they can exploit a favorable matchup to continue scoring in bunches early.

Degenerates

NCAA Football Appalachian St. @ Louisiana +3 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’m just confused by the number in this game. It’s a true home game for the Ragin’ Cajuns, who will be coached by Billy Napier one last time before he takes over at Florida. The last time the Mountaineers traveled to Lafayette was just over 7 weeks ago, and they were run out 41-13.

This is the first chance Louisiana has ever had to capture a Sun Belt conference title, and I expect them to be fired up in an emotional spot. I’ll take home-field advantage and the three points with the team who was clearly superior in the first meeting.

NCAA Football 4-Team Moneyline Parlay (+190)

I’m expecting the final CFP rankings to be Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State. In order for that to be the field, all four of them need to win their games today. So I’ll take a moneyline parlay of all four, get a solid return of almost 2 to 1, and hope no chaos ensues for championship week.

Tiny Nick is 473-365 ATS (+87.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Brett Davis (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 8 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago When the lowest-scoring team in baseball comes to town, it makes […]

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