Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Northern Illinois/Coastal Carolina Over 62.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I like looking at totals in these lower-tier bowl games because of how freely most teams play in them. Coaches often pull out all the stops, and the high-variance style usually leads to points.
That should be the case here between two teams with high-powered offenses. Despite missing star QB Grayson McCall for two games, the Chanticleers still finished 6th nationally in scoring and 7th in yardage. Both of these teams can really move the football, as the Huskies are 5th and Chants 6th in rushing yards. But Northern Illinois simply can’t stop the run, ranking 127th in defensive rushing success rate. Coastal should find massive holes all game long, which will open things up for their elite play-action game.
Northern Illinois is used to shootouts as the MAC champion, but they aren’t used to a QB of McCall’s caliber. I expect Coastal to score at will in this game, but a solid Huskies offense will produce plenty of their own to get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Villanova -6.5 @ Creighton (-110): 7:00 PM CT on FS1
I see Villanova as being in a massive bounce-back spot here as these teams open Big East play. I just don’t see a suspect Creighton offense being able to keep up if the Wildcats have the kind of positive regression I’m expecting.
Villanova’s game against an excellent Baylor defense on Sunday was not pretty, as they shot just 22.2% from the field and from deep. I’m confident that was a one-off performance and this team will turn it around tonight. The Wildcats will not be shy about continuing to fire from deep as they take the 7th-most 3-point attempts in the country. The mean reversion should come here for them as Creighton is 248th in 3-point percentage defense.
If Villanova gets things rolling offensively, I don’t see a Creighton team that’s 175th in offensive rating keeping pace. I’ll gladly count on one of the top teams in the country turning it around here, especially against a Bluejays team that’s just 1-5 ATS at home.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 491-377 ATS (+88.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
