Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oregon State vs. Utah State +7 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC
It’s been a massive turnaround this season for a Utah State program that posted only one win last year. The Aggies have an opportunity to get their 11th win of the year tonight and should be extremely competitive in this one.
I’m looking closely at how these teams play when they travel, and it’s a big disparity. Utah State was undefeated away from home this season by an average 17 point margin. Conversely, Oregon State was an ugly 1-5 on the road this year and allow almost twice as many points per game. The Beavers have an excellent running game, but they’ve struggled to get that going on the road as well. An Aggies defense that struggled against the run all year fixed those issues in the Mountain West title game, destroying a very similar San Diego State team.
Utah State has one of the more explosive passing attacks in the country and should take advantage of a Beavers defense that is 102nd in explosive play rate allowed. The Aggies have all the motivation here, and in what could be a back-and-forth game, I’ll take a touchdown with the underdog.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Utah State Moneyline (+250)
I really see the Aggies as a live dog here. Underdogs typically perform extremely well early in bowl season and got off to a 2-0 ATS and 1-1 straight-up start yesterday. With Utah State seeking that 11th win and being so good away from home, I’ll sprinkle a small bet on them to take this outright.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Auburn/St. Louis Over 146.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
Auburn has been an offensive juggernaut recently and should get into another high-scoring game against a St. Louis team that’s been an excellent over bet.
The Tigers have scored 85.8 points per game in their last 5 contests, and today get head coach Bruce Pearl back from suspension. Count me as a believer that Pearl will want to take out some frustrations off that absence, and I see them playing at their usual fast pace where they love to launch threes. That should lead to plenty of points with a St. Louis team on the other side well-equipped to hang in a shootout, leaning on their 19th-rated offense that’s 34th in true shooting percentage.
These teams in their last 12 combined games are 9-3 to the over, and that trend should continue here. With two teams that are both top-20 in per-game scoring, this fairly moderate total is just not high enough.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Baylor -7 @ Oregon (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN2
There are a few teams at this point in the college basketball season that I refuse to bet against, and Baylor tops the list. I see their dominant run continuing here against an Oregon team that looks broken against quality competition.
The Bears have the 2nd-best margin of victory in the country, destroying their opponents by 26.9 PPG while covering the number by 6.9 points on average. All of their 9 wins this season have been by more than this number as well. It’s not just cupcakes either, as Baylor has beaten their 5 power conference opponents by 19.2 points. Oregon meanwhile has really struggled against power conference or ranked opponents, 0-4 straight up and ATS with a minus-16.5 average margin.
The elite Baylor defense is back this year off their national title season, ranking 3rd in points allowed and 2nd in defensive efficiency. I have not seen any consistency out of the Oregon offense to suggest they can compete against that level of defense. Baylor is up against the trend of new AP No. 1 teams struggling, but this team is too hot and well-coached to stumble here, so I’ll lay the points.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Cal Baptist @ Arizona -27 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network
Speaking of teams I refuse to bet against, the absolute wagon that is Arizona rolls on after covering their 6th straight game on Wednesday. The Wildcats snuck past the number despite sleepwalking well into the 2nd half of that game.
Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd is far too good at his job and this team is far too talented for them to turn in another slow start here. Cal Baptist has only played one power conference opponent this season, only managing 44 points against Texas. This Arizona team should be able to limit them similarly, and continue the run of home blowouts that are coming at an average 39.2 point margin.
Tiny Nick is 492-378 ATS (+88.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
