Locks
NBA – Wolves/Blazers Over 233 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Fox Sports North
I have a list of teams that when they play against one another, I always take the over as long as the number is reasonable. These two teams are both on that list.
The Portland Trail Blazers rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and near the top of the league in pace and offensive efficiency much in part to Damian Lillard being amazing at the offensive end. On the other hand, the Minnesota Timberwolves play fast and allow a lot of points. They’re coming off of their biggest win of the season in a game that still went over despite them ramping up on defense. I’m expecting more of the same tonight.
Look for this one to sail into the 240’s or higher.
NCAA Basketball – Ohio State vs. Michigan -6 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
There have been times this season where I want to take Michigan but the line looks too big, so I lay off and they roll.
Well, this line looks too short and I’m done missing out on the Wolverines. I suspect it’s this low because of Michigan’s 5-point win at Ohio State a few weeks ago in what was maybe the game of the year up to that point. It was also the high watermark for the Buckeyes, and they haven’t looked the same since.
They’re definitely not sharp after two straight near-collapses in the Big Ten tournament. It also doesn’t look good for Kyle Young who left Friday’s game with a head injury after recently returning from a concussion. Michigan will exploit his absence with their size inside. The Wolverines took Maryland’s best shot and still won easily Friday. With a tournament game under their belt and plenty of motivation, Michigan will roll again here.
NCAA Basketball – Tennessee vs. Alabama -3 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Alabama offense gets all the attention, and that’s not wrong. It’s amazing to watch when firing on all cylinders.
The Tide are only 102nd in offensive efficiency though, and it’s their defense that’s 19th in points per possession allowed. It deserves a lot more credit, and it’s locked in right now. Alabama is giving up only 61 points per game over their last four.
It’s tough to go against Rick Barnes in a tournament setting, but the Vols are significantly overvalued here. Since Jan. 30th the only tournament-caliber team Tennessee has beaten is Florida twice. Tennessee also gives up a higher number of made threes and 3-point percentage than their strong overall metrics suggest. Alabama takes the 3rd most three’s and gets 40.2% of its points from deep, and if those shots are dropping like they were on Friday the Tide will run away with this one.
This is a short price for a great team, so lay it with Alabama.
Degenerates
No Degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 194-121 ATS (+65.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
