Locks
NCAA Basketball – Oregon State +8 vs. Houston (-110): 6:15 PM CT on CBS
One conference putting three teams into the Elite 8 is pretty impressive, more so given it’s the Pac-12. So why step in front of this West Coast Best Coast freight train now?
The fact that it’s tough to believe in a 12-seed who probably shouldn’t be in this tournament, combined with how Houston looked against Syracuse seems to be creating too big of a number here. Smart money would agree, as this line has come down from the open of 8.5 and is trending further in that direction.
I agree since the quality of opponent for the Beavers on this six-game postseason run can’t be ignored. Houston might be the best opponent yet and will probably win this game, but it will be a grind-it-out affair between two teams that are 307th and 314th in pace. It’s always advantageous to take the points in a lower-scoring game, and I don’t think Cinderella goes quietly here.
NCAA Basketball – Baylor/Arkansas Under 148.5 (-110): 8:57 PM CT on CBS
It’s that time of year where defense is being ramped up, possessions are at a premium, and they’re all highly significant as the stakes keep getting raised.
We saw it in the Sweet 16 with only one game going over the total in regulation. Now we get two teams who are both top-25 in defensive efficiency, top-30 in overall defensive rating, and a combined 5-1 to the under in their tournament games. The normally fast pace of Arkansas has been absent during the tournament, and their strong backcourt scoring faces its toughest test yet against the elite defenders of Baylor’s backcourt.
Also, an underrated angle here is the fact that this game tips off at 10:00 PM local time, not the easiest schedule for being on your peak offensive game. Sharp bettors have been hitting the under here as well, driving it down a point from the open. I’m with them as I think the reputation of Baylor’s offense overshadows an elite defense that will lock Arkansas down here and dictate this game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 207-133 ATS (+65.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
