Locks
NCAA Basketball – Indiana @ Purdue -7 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN
These two teams are headed in polar opposite directions, and I think the market is yet to catch up with the value in this Purdue squad.
The Boilermakers are off a big home win and cover against Wisconsin, part of a 7-3 ATS run and a 7-1 Big Ten home record straight up. As dominant as Purdue has been at home, Indiana is really struggling on the road recently, 0-3 both ATS and straight up. The Hoosiers also are 1-5 ATS in their last six games catching points, and a team struggling situationally like that is a great fade when visiting a strong home team.
The Purdue defense allowing only 0.87 points per possession in their last three should easily hold down a Hoosiers offense only averaging 59.3 PPG in their last three. Look for a big win out of the Boilermakers here as they play for seeding position in both the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Texas A&M @ Arkansas -15 (-110): 4:00 PM CT on SEC Network
This is a really tough spot for a bad Texas A&M team to be walking into. After a COVID pause that saw the Aggies play zero games in February, they got back into action Wednesday with a 6-point home loss to a mediocre Mississippi St. team. Now they travel to the hottest team in the SEC, and the Razorbacks are in the conversation for a 4- or even 3-seed in the dance.
For an Arkansas team that needs style points, and they’re playing like they know it with a 9-1 ATS run and wins by 15 or more in the last four games against bottom-half SEC teams. This is mostly a feel play for me, as I love how Arkansas has been playing lately and think they finish the regular season on a high note with a blowout win.
Tiny Nick is 187-114 ATS (+66.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
