Locks
NCAA Basketball – Boston College/Duke Over 151.5 (-110): 3:30 PM CT on ACC Network
When Boston College fired head coach Jim Christian last month and assistant Scott Spinelli took over, it totally changed their offensive production. Employing a “let the kids play” mentality to close out a lost season has taken the team that’s 203rd in offensive efficiency at 0.979 points per possession and put them at 1.031 in Spinelli’s three games, which have all gone over the total.
The key here is the truly awful defense from the Eagles. Their defensive efficiency rank of 313th on the season has actually gotten worse over these three games, and only nine teams are allowing more points per possession. Against a Duke team that is probably not happy to be playing an opening-round game, is on their own 9-1 run to the over, and needs every bit of blowout style points, I’m expecting a fast-paced game where the Blue Devils might reach 90 points.
The regular-season matchup saw 165 total points, so take the over here.
NCAA Basketball – McNeese St./SE Louisiana Over 145.5: 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Maybe there’s just something in the water when these two teams get together. Whatever it is, oddsmakers are relying on the overall trends and metrics while ignoring the two head-to-head matchups in the regular season.
The first meeting had a fairly high total lined at 149, which they blew right past in a 92-88 SELA win. For some misguided reason, oddsmakers decided to lower the total for the rematch to 142.5, which was obliterated in a 95-91 McNeese win. To be fair, those are the only two overs McNeese has played in their last ten games, but it’s not like they were anywhere near close.
Despite an offensive efficiency rank of 198th, McNeese is 13th in the country in shooting percentage and plays at the 29th fastest pace. And neither of these teams can guard a parked car, with McNeese 333rd in defensive efficiency and SELA at 304th. That mixture simply equates to scoring when these two teams face-off, and with the added impact of a conference tournament game, this should be a rocking chair over.
NCAA Basketball – Long Beach St. vs. CSU Northridge -2.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN3
This game opened at a pick ’em and has risen to -2.5 because sharps know the situation with Long Beach and so should you.
Michael Carter, the second-leading scorer for The Beach, was kicked off the team over the weekend. LBSU responded by losing at home to Irvine by 15 points. This was not a strong team before Carter’s departure, 2-8 in their last ten games with the only two wins over last-place Cal Poly, and I suspect they’ve fully packed it in now.
Northridge is by no means a great team, but they held their own against a very good UC-Riverside team over the weekend and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. I agree with the early and significant sharp move here, so take the Matadors to win easily against the depleted and unmotivated Beach squad.
NCAA Basketball – BYU vs. Gonzaga -14 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
Because it’s Gonzaga? Is that enough rationale?
I’ll admit I did not think they looked sharp in their semifinal game last night against St. Mary’s, and they actually seemed a little disinterested in that game yet still cruised to a 23-point win and cover. I think this one will get Gonzaga’s attention though – title game stakes against the team who managed the closest margin against them in WCC play when they only beat the Cougars by 11 on the road.
The first matchup between these two, a 17-point Gonzaga win where they didn’t shoot particularly well and still led at one point by 32, seems to me the more instructive result for this game. BYU played overtime late into last night so they’re at a rest disadvantage against Gonzaga’s 7th fastest pace of play. It’s not often you get such a relatively short line with Gonzaga and I smell blowout here, so lay it with the Bulldogs.
Degenerates
No Degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 191-115 ATS (+69.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
