Locks
MLB – Indians/White Sox under 7.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on NBC Sports Chicago
This low of a total is well-deserved given the pitching strength and offensive weakness of both clubs right now.
Zach Plesac gets the start for Cleveland Indians and has been allowed to go a little deeper into games than typical starters so far this season. His low walk rate should minimize opportunities for a Chicago White Sox offense that has been struggling without Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez.
The struggles for Cleveland’s offense are obvious and have resulted in the Indians going 8-2 under this low total to start the season, including the two games to start this series. That should continue against Carlos Rodon who comes into this game with extra rest. And a final important angle to factor in is the weather. This game will be played outdoors in Chicago will be played in mid-40s temperatures that will keep the ball from jumping off any bats.
You have to hold your nose with unders this low, but I think the trends and weather impact support the play.
NBA – Wizards/Kings over 238.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBC Sports California
The Sacramento Kings have been setting records this season, and not in a good way. Their defensive efficiency mark of 1.148 points allowed per possession is not just dead last in the league, it’s also the worst in NBA history. Match that statistic with this Washington Wizards team that plays at the fastest pace in the league, and you can see why this total has been flying up from the open of 236.
I still think there’s value in the over though since Washington can’t guard anyone themselves (26th in defensive efficiency), and De’Aaron Fox has played like a man possessed since the All-Star break. Three of the last four games for the Wizards have hit the 240 point mark, as did the first meeting between these teams, so I expect another here.
As long as the star guards in this matchup are all playing, there should be minimal defense and plenty of scoring, so grab the over before it steams too high.
NBA – Pacers/Rockets over 232.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Indiana
Yesterday I went through how the Indiana Pacers are a sneaky bad home team and it paid off. Well, they’re also a sneaky good over team, and I think that will pay off here against the Houston Rockets, who can score on anyone.
Indiana comes in with the second-best record to the over in the NBA at 60%, and the top plus/minus to the total at +4.5 points. After a loss and in road games that over record rises to 67% in both situations, and the plus/minus goes to +7.4 and +5.5 respectively – 2nd and 1st in the league.
We should see another high-scoring affair against Houston, as at least one team has reached 120 points in 8 of the last 10 Rockets games. These teams are both top-7 in pace, and given the strong trends for Indiana, I’m surprised this isn’t closer to 240, so take the over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 225-141 ATS (+76.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
