Locks
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz/Portland Trail Blazers Over 186.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on Prime Video
The consolation games of the Summer League slate are nothing but open gym, prove me wrong. That’s why all the totals have spiked into the 180’s for today and tomorrow, but it’s still important to pick your spots. I’m looking for teams where there’s offensive talent and/or a lot of tempo, and I think I’ve found a combination of both here.
The Jazz have plenty of elite players by Summer League standards, and letting them run in a scrimmage style game should result in Utah filling it up all night. Portland is interesting, because their talent isn’t anything special, but they’ve had extremely balanced scoring the past three games where they’ve scored in triple digits each time. The Blazers are playing very high-possession games, enough to clear this total normally, but with the consolation round style it should ramp up even more.
WNBA (1 Unit) LA Sparks/Chicago Sky Over 182.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ION
I’ve been waiting for this game for days. It should be a pretty simple over, as two awful defenses square off against offenses that are better than they look. It’s obviously not ideal for both teams to be missing their leading scorers, but the Sky have gotten along fine lately without Rickea Jackson, and the Sparks are still filling it up in Kelsey Plum’s absence. Mostly though it’s about these teams not being able to stop anything, especially LA who is dead last by a wide margin in defensive metrics. These teams are also 1st and 3rd in total possessions per game, and that fast pace is what sent them well over the total in their first meeting, so I expect more of the same tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
The whole team contributes, but Ogwumike tends to lead the way. That’s been the formula for offensive success these past few weeks without Kelsey Plum, and there’s no reason to stop backing Ogwumike here. She dropped 25 on the Sky in last week’s meeting, and should be counted on to keep clearing this total that is incredibly stable despite a 6-2 run to the over by the veteran guard.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-11 (-0.91 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
