Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Leg Prop Parlay (+200; Odds via Fanduel)
Kyle Freeland Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (-150): 7:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
The baseline for Freeland since the start of May has essentially been 6 hits per game, which is why this number is so high to begin with. In his 13 starts during that time, only 3 of them have seen him allowed less than this prop, and 2 of those instances were exactly 6 hits allowed. He’s just not in anything close to good form right now, and at home is where things are the worst as he’s allowing a .330 opponent batting average in Coors.
Now he has to face a hot Nationals lineup that is second in the league for batting average against lefties, along with ranking first in OPS, BABIP, and wOBA. So I see this as another struggle for Freeland, and so do the books as they’ve juiced his prop pretty heavily, but as a parlay piece I think it carries a lot of value.
Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Springs is another lefty starter that has been on the struggle bus since the start of May, posting a 7.47 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his past 12 starts. And like Freeland, he has to face elite hitting against southpaws as he takes on a Diamondbacks squad that is the only team better than the Nationals for batting average against lefties.
This should be a shock to Springs’ system as he’s been fortunate to face a lot of lineups that aren’t great against lefties during this stretch, so his numbers could be a lot worse. The D’Backs love it when they get to see a lefty, as they’re batting 44 points higher against them than righties. Arizona has been surging behind some hot hitting, and I think they jump all over a struggling lefty tonight to send Springs over his prop total again.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Toronto Tempo Over 182.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Peacock
The Aces are the league’s freshest team, as they haven’t played in 8 days. That’s a lot of time to sit and think about a 34-point home loss on national TV, so this game sets up as an ideal statement spot. They should be able to roll over one of the league’s worst defenses, as Toronto is dead last in defensive efficiency and would be allowing the most points per game if not for the existence of the Sparks.
So what I’m anticipating here is a blowout over, especially considering the Tempo are 14-4 to the over this season when they’re the underdog. But with Marina Mabrey this team can still fill it up, especially if it’s the style of game I’m envisioning where Las Vegas scores at will. The Aces are kind of a below-average defense, and their biggest weakness is three-point shooting. With Toronto being a high-volume three-point shooting team I think they’re able to respond to what should be an offensive eruption from the Aces, sending this one over the high total.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics/Golden State Valkyries Under 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on MNMT
These teams proved on Saturday why they’re the best and third-best defenses in the league. They combined for 143 points, but it probably shouldn’t have been so high-scoring if you look closely at how the game flowed. Washington erupted for 29 points in the third quarter on Saturday night, riding a short burst of impossibly hot shooting to an outlier result.
The Mystics are the league’s second-worst shooting team, so definite outlier stuff going on for that quarter, especially considering their other 7 quarters against the Valkyries this season have averaged 12.7 points. This is a matchup of extremely slow-paced teams that can’t shoot but sure can defend, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a result tonight closer to their first meeting which only saw 111 total points.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-9 (+0.99 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
