Locks
MLB – Twins ML @ Indians (-120): 5:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I know, I know… the Minnesota Twins have been an absolute disaster so far this year. But hear me out: Today they have José Berríos on the mound against the struggling Zach Plesac (1-3) who currently has an ERA over 6.00.
The Twins are playing below the level they are expected to be playing at while the Cleveland Indians are playing exactly how we expected them to. Meaning they’re mediocre. Look for the Twins bats to finally wake up against a Cleveland team that also has had a hard time lighting up the scoreboard.
I know it’s been a rough couple of weeks for Twins fans but the Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 and just lost three of four to a New York Yankees team that was struggling like Minnesota is. As long as Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Donaldson are in the lineup, I like my chances for a Twins win tonight.
NBA – Suns @ Knicks +2.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV
Something’s gotta give in this one because the situational ATS records for these teams are incredible.
By virtue of their now 12-game cover streak, the New York Knicks have the best overall ATS record in the league, and the Phoenix Suns are not far behind at 3rd best. The Knicks have the rest advantage in this game, a situation where they’re covering the number at an NBA-best 80% clip. But the Suns are 7-4 ATS with a rest disadvantage and 9-5 on back-to-backs.
With Phoenix losing to the Brooklyn Nets yesterday, their NBA-best 13-4 ATS record after a loss comes into play. But the Knicks own the 2nd-best ATS mark after a win. If that’s not enough, both teams cover at around 60% in non-conference games.
The Suns wrap up their long road trip after a high-possession game yesterday and should be looking ahead to Wednesday’s big home date with the Los Angeles Clippers. With reverse line movement towards New York supporting the play, I’ll back the Knicks to continue their incredible run with a couple of points in hand.
NBA – Mavs/Kings Over 223 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV
INJURY REPORT IS KEY!!! This pick 100% comes down to who will be active tonight.
The Sacramento Kings rank at the bottom of the league on defense, and we’ve seen them score points in a hurry even without De’Aaron Fox in the lineup — especially if Buddy Hield is hitting his perimeter jump shots.
This game needs Luka Doncic to play to be advantageous to the over, but if he does I’m rolling with the over in a big way. 223 is simply too low for these two high octane offenses and Sacramento’s horrible defense. Kristaps Porzingis and Josh Richardson are also important gametime decisions to monitor, but I think this total reflects that uncertainty.
It’s tough to speculate on who will play in the NBA before the game is in actual warm ups but keep a close eye on this one as 223 could still be an over even with an inactive or two.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 232-149 ATS (+74.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
