Locks
NBA – Wizards/Hawks over 239.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
I just can’t bring myself to fade the over trend for these teams, it’s like they’re playing an entirely different game out there. Particularly the Washington Wizards, whose lowest game total in their last six contests is 249 points – on Monday against this Atlanta Hawks team – and those six games have averaged 264.5 points.
Certainly not sustainable forever, but against an Atlanta team that’s played five of their last six over the total and are scoring 127.3 PPG in their last four, this has all the makings of another shootout. Washington has been able to dictate the style of play in this run they’re on, getting every team to play up-tempo at their fastest pace in the NBA.
The Hawks have the shooters to maximize scoring in a high-possessions game, as their offensive efficiency is tops in the league over the last three games. Bradley Beal’s absence didn’t matter for the total on Monday and it shouldn’t here as these teams put on a fireworks show for this national TV spot.
Bonus Bet: What has the world come to when you have to lay massive juice for a triple-double prop? That’s the situation with Russell Westbrook, as a ‘Yes’ bet will force you to lay in the neighborhood of -600. Instead, I’m looking to his PAR prop (combined total of points/assists/rebounds) at over 54.5 with -115 juice. The Brodie is 5-1 over this total in these last six games of Washington being on fire, and Beal’s absence will force him to do even more on the court so I love this prop if it’s available at your book.
NBA – Rockets (1st Half Team Total under 53.5) @ Lakers (-110): 9:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA
These teams haven’t faced each other in so long, James Harden was still a plus-size Rocket at the time and Donald Trump had only been impeached once. In both of those games five months ago (a doubleheader in Houston) the Rockets couldn’t clear this team total with Harden and John Wall in the lineup, falling under 50 both times.
After strong defensive showings in their past three home games, the Los Angeles Lakers welcome back one of the best defenders in the NBA tonight with LeBron James finally ready to go. Perfect timing for him to get a tuneup against essentially a G-League roster, and I’d expect James and other Laker starters to see much more of the court in the first half than the second.
Houston has been playing to sky-high totals lately as they’ve abandoned defense altogether, but the Lakers live to shut teams down and hang their hat on owning the best defensive rating in the league. Look for L.A. to work hard on defense early, and this severely outmatched Rockets team should struggle offensively against an elite defense.
Degenerates
No Degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 249-161 ATS (+78.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
