Locks
MLB – Rockies Team Total under 2.5 @ Mets (-110): 6:10 PM CT on SNY
Fresh off making minor leaguers look ridiculous in a rehab start, Jacob deGrom returns to the bigs and gets a pretty favorable matchup. The Colorado Rockies have been pretty awful away from the friendly thin air of Coors Field. They’re just 3-17 on the season and really struggling to score lately, averaging 1.7 runs over their last seven road contests and getting shut out in four of those games.
None of those have been against deGrom either, a pitcher with three total earned runs over his six starts on the season. Opponents are only batting .128 against him, and with the Rockies struggling against righties at a .228 average and only .204 on the road I’d expect that to continue here.
deGrom is as good as they get, so with a bad Rockies team in town, I’ll count on him to toss another gem and cash this isolated total.
MLB – Royals @ Rays Runline -1.5 (+115): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
If you haven’t been paying attention to baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays are rolling. They’ve now won 11 games in a row and when they win they tend to win big, with 10 of those wins by multiple runs and 24 of their 30 season wins by two-plus runs as well.
The credit has to go to their extra-hot offense, scoring 8.6 runs per game over this winning streak. Over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching like they’ll face tonight, the Rays lead MLB in runs, RBI, slugging, OPS, and are 2nd in home runs. We’ve also already seen this same matchup just over a month ago when Brad Keller and the Kansas City Royals lost 14-7 to the Rays, with Keller only recording five outs and giving up five of those runs.
Rich Hill has been lights out for Tampa as well in his last three starts, allowing one run total and posting a 0.42 ERA in May. Books haven’t quite adjusted to any of this yet, and with a plus-price on the Rays runline here I’m loving this play.
Degenerates
NBA – Celtics @ Nets -4.5 First Half (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
I’m going right after this number again after it failed to hit in the first game of this series on Saturday.
I don’t think many people expected the Brooklyn Nets to come out as flat as they did in that game, only scoring 16 points in the first quarter and trailing the Boston Celtics by six points at halftime. The lid eventually came off the basket for the Big 3 after their 5-for-20 start from the field though, and the Nets looked their usual dominant selves as they put Boston away for a full-game cover.
Whether it was an adjustment to fans in the stands, unfamiliarity with each other, or any number of other excuses from the Nets, I’m expecting the momentum from Saturday’s 2nd half to carry into this game as they look to rectify that embarrassing start. This number of -4.5 being the same as Saturday’s first-half line is designed to make you think about that result and fear a repeat. But I’m trusting the narrative and a far superior Nets team to get the job done this time.
Bonus Bet: Kemba Walker saw a lot of the bench in Saturday’s game as a result of foul trouble, only playing 27 minutes and only scoring 15 points. The rest of Boston’s starting backcourt all played 40 minutes, a result of depth issues with the absence of Jaylen Brown.
If you extrapolate Kemba’s scoring production over 40 minutes of playing time you get 25 points, which is over his points prop for that game (24.5) and over the discounted number for this game of 23.5. I’d expect Walker to be far more mindful of his fouls in this one, see more of the floor, and get over this points prop.
Tiny Nick is 264-171 ATS (+82.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
