Locks
NBA – Knicks +5.5 @ Hawks (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
At this point, it’s worth wondering if my blossoming New York Knicks fandom is clouding my judgment on this game and series. That said, I can’t escape the fact that for the vast majority of two games in MSG the Knicks have played terribly, Julius Randle has looked awful, Trae Young has been going off, yet the series is only 1-1 by virtue of a buzzer-beater.
I thought this had the makings of a tight series and that has been holding true, so getting this many points seems like great value even if the series is now shifting to Atlanta. I keep coming back to the fact that the Hawks are 1-4 both straight up and ATS against the Knicks this season, Trae Young has played in every one of those games, and Julius Randle absolutely shredded the Hawks in the regular season.
At some point, Randle and the Knicks starters are going to play well out of the gate and take control of this series, but even if they don’t this is a lot of points to have in my back pocket for what should be another tightly contested game.
NBA – Nets -8 @ Celtics (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
It’s only a matter of time now for the eventual Brooklyn Nets triumph in this series to arrive, and I’m expecting them to get the brooms ready fairly soon. I’ve been going after the first half lines for the Nets in Games 1 and 2, but I feel the full game side is a better play here.
The Boston Celtics could easily benefit early in this game from a sense of desperation and a rowdy Boston crowd, plus in the only other game between these two in Beantown this season the Celtics led at half before losing by 28 points. That’s the kind of inevitability I’m counting on here with Brooklyn, that given enough time this Nets team will overwhelm an outmatched opponent like the Celtics and run away with this game.
There’s too much supposed home court advantage being baked into this line – especially considering the health issues of Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum – and the smart money is having none of it and siding with Brooklyn. I don’t think venue matters one bit with this Nets freight train, I see them rolling big tonight so lay the points.
MLB – Braves @ Mets Team Total under 3.5 run (-110): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network
A fun and challenging game these days is to go through a New York Mets lineup card and see how many names you recognize. There is a laundry list of injuries to starting position players for New York, and even the players you can recognize like Francisco Lindor have been failing to live up to expectations.
The absences have resulted in quite the power outage recently, as the Mets are batting .194 as a team over the last week and are averaging two runs per game in their past six games. Righthanded pitching like they’ll face tonight has also held them down all season, with the Mets managing a .225 batting average and only 2.6 runs per game.
Atlanta Braves starter Ian Anderson has dominated weak lineups this season, and has five starts where he allowed one run or less. In a game where it’s expected to be cool and damp I see the Mets backups struggling again at the plate, so I love this isolated team total to stay under.
MLB – Giants @ Dodgers Runline -1.5 (+110): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
The Los Angeles Dodgers are an extremely public play – books need their opponent just about every single night – and the runline is admittedly a little square, but I just can’t help myself given the matchup. The Dodgers finally climbed over the San Francisco Giants in the NL West standings last night, and I get the sense they won’t be looking back, especially with Walker Buehler on the mound tonight.
Buehler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball at getting extended work, with a minimum of six full innings in every start and seven in each of his last three games, taking pressure off the mediocre L.A. bullpen. He’s also fresh off allowing just one run in his last start, a game in San Francisco where the Dodgers covered the runline in a 6-3 victory.
The last start for Giants pitcher Anthony DeSclafani couldn’t have gone much worse as he allowed 10 runs and didn’t get out of the 2nd inning in an 11-5 Dodgers triumph. This feels like another easy L.A. win, and with a little plus-juice here I’ll take a shot on them to win comfortably.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 268-173 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
