Locks
NBA – Timberwolves/Heat over 225 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This is a pretty low total for a Minnesota Timberwolves game, and honestly, it’s becoming a low total for a Miami Heat game as well. We highlighted Miami’s trend toward higher-scoring games for Tuesday, a game they played without Jimmy Butler, and crushed the over with 240 points.
That makes seven straight over the total for the Heat, and with Minnesota taking their 4th highest pace and offensive talents to South Beach, this one looks headed over as well. In their last three games, the Heat are the 3rd best team in offensive efficiency and 3rd worst in defensive efficiency, a personality shift for this team that definitely suggests points against Minnesota’s style.
The Wolves have played three straight games at 240 points or above, and have positive ROI to the over in all the situational spots applicable to this game such as road team, underdog, and after a loss. These teams cruised over the total in their first matchup three weeks ago, and I’m expecting more of the same given the way both are playing right now.
NBA – Pelicans @ 76ers -5 First Half (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBC Sports Philadelphia
In the first matchup between these teams, the New Orleans Pelicans held the Philadelphia 76ers to just 94 points en route to a 7-point win a month ago. But the contrast between that game and this one could not be starker.
Joel Embiid was just working his way back from injury in that game, and Steven Adams‘ defense frustrated the Philly big man. Now it’s Adams who is dealing with injury and doubtful for this game while Embiid is fully healthy and playing at a dominant level.
Joining Adams in street clothes tonight is Brandon Ingram, a big loss for a Pelicans offense that should get locked down by a 76ers defense that’s 2nd in defensive rating and 3rd in effective field goal rate. Philadelphia has been on a tear lately in pursuit of the East’s top seed with a 5-1 ATS run and should have no trouble against the defensively-challenged Pelicans.
Since the full game side is rising fast, I’ll take this shorter number and avoid any late-game backdoor shenanigans.
NBA – Knicks Team Total over 105 @ Suns (-110): 9:00 PM CT on MSG
I really don’t understand why this number is so low for the New York Knicks. As I’ve been highlighting, this is a team on a tear offensively, averaging 112.9 PPG in regulation over their last 17 contests. And over their last 12 games, the Knicks are second only to the high-octane Portland Trail Blazers in offensive rating.
Included in that stretch is a game against this Phoenix Suns team where New York scored 110 in a losing effort. Further strengthening the case here is that over their own past 12 games stretch, a once-dominant Phoenix defense is 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. Coming off their worst offensive output in a month in their loss at Denver on Wednesday, I’m expecting significant positive regression from a Knicks offense that’s had time to adjust and knows how to score against the Suns.
Degenerates
NBA – Rockets @ Bucks -10 First Half (-110): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet SW
An NBA roster consists of 17 players under contract, and for the Houston Rockets, 13 of their 17 players are listed as dealing with some kind of injury. That’s just astounding, especially considering the Rockets are already terrible when fully staffed.
If that wasn’t enough, this game carries a huge revenge factor, as Milwaukee’s last loss came at Houston when Giannis Antetokounmpo left early with an ankle injury and Kevin Porter Jr. (one of those 13 for Houston) went nuclear with a 50-point game. The full game side of 17 points is far too big a number to lay with any confidence in the modern NBA, but I expect the Bucks to come out of the gates with a vengeance in this game against a team that’s about as depleted as it gets.
Bonus Bet: In the three games since The Greek Freak returned from his ankle injury, Milwaukee has been averaging 66.3 points in the first half, all against much better competition than Houston will offer up. They also put 73 on Houston in the previous matchup’s first half with Giannis barely seeing the floor. If your book offers a Bucks first-half team total, I’m seeing it at 64 points and would definitely take the over.
Tiny Nick is 244-159 ATS (+75.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
