Locks
NBA – Phoenix Suns/Milwaukee Bucks Over 220.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ABC
Oddsmakers are expecting you to look at Sunday’s result of 220 points with trepidation, as they’ve set this number just half a point higher. But there’s plenty of reason to believe Game 4 will clear this total like the first two games of the series did.
The blowout that occurred in Game 3 was a big contributor to holding down scoring, as bench players got into the game late and the pace slowed in the 4th quarter. But when the game was competitive, particularly as the Phoenix Suns made a 3rd quarter run, it was a high-scoring and fast-paced affair.
The Suns should bounce back after getting blown out to keep this more competitive throughout, with positive regression off their 29% 3-point shooting, 11 of 16 from the charity stripe, and Devin Booker’s ugly 3 for 14 shooting night. Booker was so bad in fact that he was benched the entire 4th quarter, a big factor in the low-scoring end to the game.
The Milwaukee Bucks’ scoring also tends to snowball, as their games are 61.4% to the over after a win this year. So with a better and more sustained performance from Phoenix offensively, I see this game getting over the total.
Bonus Lock – 3rd Quarter Over 56.5 (-110):
High-scoring 3rd quarters have been the most consistent angle of the finals, increasing each game from 62 to 65 to 69 points, with both teams combining for 52.4% from the field in the three 3rd quarters. Books have only made a slight adjustment on this isolated quarter total, so whether you’re able to attack this number pre-game or at halftime I love this bet on another offensive explosion after the half.
Extra Bonus Lock – Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 34.5 Points (-110):
Freakish is an apt description of what The Greek Freak is doing in these finals so far on one good leg. After being eased back in Game 1 from his knee injury, it’s been full speed ahead for Giannis, who is averaging this many points in the series despite a relatively quiet first game. The Suns have had no answer for him down low as he’s 18 for 24 in the paint the last two games, as well as recording 11 and 13 points from the free-throw line. That’s a recipe for another potential 40-point effort tonight, so I see Giannis easily clearing this total again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 327-225 ATS (+87.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
