Locks
MLB – Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-110) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: 6:05 PM CT
One of my favorite things to write up is when I have a simple gut pick. And that’s exactly what this is. The Milwaukee Brewers are the far superior team here and although Adrian Houser (4.16 ERA) isn’t an ace by anyone’s standards, he isn’t a total slouch either. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been playing a little better lately, but in a game that is basically a pick ‘em, I’m going to roll with the playoff-caliber Brewers.
MLB – New York Mets/New York Yankees Under 5 First 5 Innings (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network
This is a play based almost entirely on the offensive futility of the New York Mets and the weather conditions this game will be played in. The Mets have been incredibly bad at the plate this season, scoring the fewest runs in the majors with the 3rd-worst OPS and 5th-worst average.
A lot of that can be attributed to injuries, but the last three weeks have seen them score 2.4 runs per game and get shut out four times. I don’t see them being able to produce much tonight against Jordan Montgomery who has a 1.93 ERA in his last four home starts and is a lefty, which the Mets fare worse against.
The paper tiger offense of the New York Yankees may have looked good in hot weather games earlier this week, but the weather has changed dramatically in New York City – low 70’s at game time with light rain and wind blowing straight in. This first-five total is more than half of the full game total giving it natural value, so I’ll count on ugly weather and uglier Mets hitting to hold the scoring down early.
MLB – Baltimore Orioles/Los Angeles Angels over 9.5 (-110): 8:38 PM CT on Bally Sports West
I never thought I’d look at these teams and see two hot offenses, but that’s what we have tonight with a pitching matchup that should make for plenty of scoring.
The Baltimore Orioles of all teams have found an offensive groove, destroying good Houston Astros pitching this week for 27 runs in the 3-game set. That gives them a .275 batting average and .782 OPS in the last week, big improvements over their season averages, and something I think they can continue against Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning tonight.
Canning has been bringing his ERA down with a decent June, but his 5.19 home ERA should allow for the Orioles to plate a few in this game. But the biggest contributor to this total will be the awful pitching of Keegan Akin for Baltimore, who owns a 7.94 road ERA and a 12.21 ERA in his last 3 starts, all of which have flown over this total.
The Angels have averaged 6.2 runs per game over the last month and absolutely destroy teams with bad pitching behind the hot Shohei Ohtani. With the wind blowing out at Angel Stadium tonight, I’m expecting to see a lot of scoring, and this total is too low for how these teams have been performing at the plate and on the mound.
MLB – St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies Over 12.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet RM
You gotta love Coors Field, especially in favorable weather conditions and with bad pitchers like we have on the mound tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals will send out Johan Oviedo and his 6.91 road ERA to face the thin air of Denver and a Colorado Rockies lineup that rakes at home. They have a .284 average and .819 OPS in home games this season and should have an easy time against Oviedo, as well as a Cards bullpen with the worst xFIP in baseball.
Fortunately for over bettors the Rockies counter with Chi Chi Gonzalez and his 7.71 June ERA. Gonzalez has seen his last four home starts average 15 total runs, plus he already surrendered 7 runs in 4 innings to the Cardinals in St Louis earlier this year. And once the Cardinals have chased Chi Chi they’ll face a bullpen with the 2nd-worst ERA and 4th-worst xFIP in the majors.
It’s also still very hot in Denver with a breeze blowing out to right for this game. With all the signs pointing to runs, I’ll take the over on what’s a fairly standard Coors Field total.
Degenerates
MLB – Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+125): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
The Detroit Tigers might be a bad baseball team that’s 9 games under .500, but this is the one scenario where you really shouldn’t go against them.
That’s because Casey Mize gets the start for Detroit tonight and has been the closest thing to an ace that the Tigers have. They’re 9-6 when Mize takes the mound including winners of three straight, and while he is yet to solve the Chicago White Sox this season I don’t have a lot of faith in Lance Lynn, who starts for the Southsiders tonight.
After a great early season run for Lynn, the White Sox have lost 4 of his starts in a row, and are just 1-3 in his road starts where his ERA is 2.13 points higher than at home. The Tigers have appeared semi-competent during this 10-6 run they’re on.
With a heavy influx of sharp money backing Detroit here, I’ll take a shot with them at this plus-juice return.
Tiny Nick is 316-215 ATS (+85.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
