Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN2
You could take your beer league softball team to Baltimore and probably get a few runs across on this Orioles pitching staff right now. That’s especially true with them sending Keegan Akin back into a starting role after a short banishment to the bullpen, well-deserved after he posted a 12.22 ERA over his last 6 starts.
The opposing team easily cleared this total in those games, and Orioles opponents are 9-3 over this total in their past 12 games overall. Even if Akin is kept on a short leash, there’s little help behind him as the Baltimore bullpen has the 3rd-highest ERA in baseball this season, the highest during the past month, and a monstrous 13.68 ERA the last 7 days.
That’s all bad news for them facing the Detroit Tigers, who are surprisingly the 4th-highest scoring team in MLB over the past month. It’s a hot night in Baltimore with the wind blowing out of Camden Yards, so I’m seeing another pitching implosion from the Orioles here and I want to isolate their futility from the mound.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
I’m happy to target another Tampa Bay Rays road over here, especially with the pitching matchup for this game.
The Rays have the 2nd-best road over percentage in baseball at 64.1%, the highest plus/minus to those totals, and are 7-3 over this number their past 10 away games. They also tend to play high-scoring games with the Boston Red Sox, 7-2 over this total on the season including 3-0 at Fenway.
They should continue their high-scoring ways against Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez, owner of a 6.35 ERA at Fenway this season and a pitcher that the Rays lineup has had excellent career success against. The wheels have also started to come off for the usually excellent Boston bullpen lately, with big rises in ERA and xFIP the past few weeks.
Tampa Bay will need to score against that poor pitching to back up their own gas can of a starter, Luis Patino, who has been awful on the road with a 7.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season. Both these teams are plenty capable of raking, so with bad pitchers facing off in a small park, I’ll count on another over from this season series.
MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+120):
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-210) 8:45PM on NBC Sports-BA
There is still significant undervaluation of the San Francisco Giants in the market and I’m capitalizing on it here. We’re already seeing plenty of -300 moneylines lately, so it’s disrespectful to make the team with the best record in baseball this short of a favorite against the worst record in baseball.
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ futility against the Giants should continue tonight, even with Zac Gallen on the mound who’s now 0-3 against San Fran this season. Conversely, the Giants are 3-0 against Arizona when Alex Wood starts, and have won 8 of his past 10 starts overall.
It should be easy for the Giants to push their season record to 13-2 against the Snakes tonight. But even with this disrespectful moneyline, the only thing to do with it is tie it into a parlay.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-200): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet NW
Once more for the people in the back – what do the Texas Rangers do when Kolby Allard starts? They lose; 1-11 on the season including 0-2 against the Seattle Mariners who are crushing him with a .386 average and 1.173 OPS.
And what do the Mariners do when Logan Gilbert starts? They win; 11-3 on the season including 2-0 against the Rangers.
Gilbert is one of the most valuable bet-on pitchers in baseball this season, and it looks like the market is finally catching up with this wide moneyline. But that doesn’t matter for the purposes of this parlay as all we need is for these massive trends to continue, and with the Rangers now tied for the fewest road wins in baseball I see no reason why they wouldn’t.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 354-246 ATS (+92.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
