Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
We just saw this exact pitching matchup less than two weeks ago, a low-scoring affair that I think gets repeated tonight, at least early on.
I’m particularly liking the matchup of Nestor Cortes against the Baltimore Orioles as he was dominant against them in that previous game. Cortes has been really strong overall, and 8 of his past 10 starts for the New York Yankees have seen the first 5 innings stay under this total. John Means has also been excellent against the Yankees this year, with both his starts staying under this first-five total, as have his past four starts overall.
There’s a high total for this game and it’s on the rise. But these teams tend to see more scoring later on in games so that’s creating more value to the under for the first five innings. With good pitchers and an enigmatic Yankees team, I’m expecting limited scoring early in this one.
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Francisco Giants Team Total Over 4 (-110): 8:45 PM CT on NBC Sports-Bay Area
We get a half-run discount on this number from yesterday, even though the San Francisco Giants got to six-plus runs for the ninth game in a row. The discount is because of strong pitchers going for both teams, but I don’t see it mattering for the Giants.
The San Diego Padres are sending maybe their best pitcher to the mound in Joe Musgrove with a sub-3.00 ERA and multiple complete games. But the Giants have Musgrove’s number as he owns an 8.10 ERA in two starts against them this season, both losses where the Giants scored 7 runs. I mentioned yesterday how the Giants have excellent power numbers against right-handed pitching and they get another one tonight in Musgrove, this time with a big wind blowing out to left in Oracle Park.
There is a continued disrespect of this Giants team in the market, and until they prove me wrong, I’ll continue to go after their team totals at such low numbers.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 379-276 ATS (+85.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
