Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
Cowboys +14.5
Yes, they’re my favorite team, but the Dallas Cowboys have the offensive firepower to keep up with anyone in the NFL. Dak Prescott was on pace for historic passing yardage totals before his injury last season, and that ability to move the ball down the field makes them the perfect backdoor cover team when catching points.
When looking to tease the side in this game, either direction makes plenty of sense and I understand the arguments for both. However, being able to get through key backdoor cover numbers at 10, 13, and 14 points makes the most sense for a team with an offense like Dallas. Super Bowl winners opening on Thursday nights have an excellent record straight up so I’m not loving the chances of a Cowboys upset, but staying within two touchdowns should be easy.
Cowboys/Buccaneers Over 45.5
Last season’s versions of these teams saw the Bucs go 15-5 over this number including the postseason, while the Cowboys went 10-6 over despite their problems at quarterback. Simply put these are two elite offenses that can score on anyone, and they played at the 2nd and 4th-highest situation-neutral paces last season.
I’m anticipating big things from a statistical perspective from Tom Brady and the Bucs offense this season, and a porous Dallas defense gives them a great opportunity to start strong. If the Cowboys are put in catch-up mode that creates the perfect scenario for an over, especially at this teased number. Concerns about bad weather for this game have dissipated, so I see plenty of offense to get over this discounted total.
Degenerates
NFL CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions (+120): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
If Dallas is going to be forced to throw in an effort to keep up with Tampa Bay in this game, then CeeDee Lamb is going to play an integral role. He should anyway given his talent level and the rapport he was building with Dak Prescott early last season.
This matchup should also be favorable for him as Lamb typically lines up in the slot despite his size. The Bucs defense has issues tonight in the secondary with free safety Jordan Whitehead out for this game, and slot corner options Jamel Dean and Ross Cockrell grading out extremely low last season. Lamb and the 3-headed monster of Dallas receivers should get the best of that weakened secondary, especially if the Cowboys are playing catch-up in this game. A plus-juice return here is just too tempting to pass up.
Tiny Nick is 370-270 ATS (+81.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
