Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Do I dare say that the Timberwolves are becoming one of the more reliable bets in the NBA? Confidence in this team is not often rewarded, historically speaking anyway, but I think they get the job done tonight.
Minnesota has actually been a good team to bet on recently, as they’re currently on a 7-3 ATS run. They’re also 13-6 ATS on the road this season, good for second-best in the league. The last two lopsided road wins over bad teams have seen their shots falling at a high rate – a welcome change for this team and something that should continue against a porous Pelicans defense.
New Orleans is one of the easiest teams to shoot against, ranking 28th in opponent effective field goal percentage. If the Wolves can stay hot from the floor, this game should be no problem for them, so I’m laying the short number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa St./Kansas Over 140 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m not necessarily going against my Cyclones here, although I do think they’re heading into a potential buzz saw. Kansas is a dangerous team off a loss and will be motivated to unleash their elite offense at home.
Kansas dropped their second game of the season on Saturday, and the last time they lost, the Jayhawks put up 95-plus points in 3 of their next 4 games. This is also the Big 12 home opener for Kansas, and they love running it up at Phog Allen. An offense that’s 5th in shooting and 8th in efficiency will be challenged by the strong ISU defense, but I see motivation and environment giving KU the advantage.
Kansas is 11-3 over this number on the season, and while the Cyclones have played in a lot of low-scoring games, they’ve bucked that trend against elite offenses. Kansas is also just 99th in defensive rating, so both teams should be able to produce enough to get over this moderate total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oklahoma St. @ West Virginia -3 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This spot does not set up well for Oklahoma State, especially on the road against a team that plays defense as well as West Virginia does.
The Mountaineers are once again making a name for themselves on the defensive end, ranking 31st in defensive efficiency. With OSU ranked 20th, we’re likely in for a defensive battle here, but the strong guard duo of Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil give West Virginia the edge here. Those two have been taking over games lately and can light it up from outside against a Cowboys defense that’s only 161st at defending the three.
Oklahoma State has also played just one true road game, and off the high of a weekend win over Texas, this should be a shock to their system. I have the Mountaineers winning this by at least two possessions, so I’ll lay the points here.
Degenerates
NBA Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
If you want to step in front of this Memphis freight train right now be my guest, but I have to take points with how hot they are. I know Klay Thompson is back, but the Warriors are dealing with injuries to other key players and Thompson may well be on a minutes restriction.
I see this as sort of a flat spot for the Warriors as well, coming off the big emotional game for Thompson’s return and now having to hit the road against a scorching hot team. The Grizzlies are on an 8-2 ATS run to go along with their 9 game winning streak, knocking off some of the best teams in the league along the way. The number feels like a trap to lure in public bettors with Thompson being back, so I’ll zig with the book enticing everyone to zag.
Tiny Nick is 516-402 ATS (+83.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
