Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Dixie St./Chicago St. Over 146 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+
There will be no defense played in this game, I can assure you of that. Dixie State enters ranked 282nd in defensive efficiency, and Chicago State all the way down at 325th. Chicago State is so bad defensively that any team with any semblance of offensive capability will top 80-plus points on them.
Dixie State is not wowing anyone with their offensive firepower, but they are with their style of play. The Trailblazers are currently running the 4th fastest-paced offense in the country, and it’s been very difficult for opponents to handle. I see Dixie dictating the tempo in this game as they usually do, and with a general disinterest on defense, this game should go over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Norfolk St. -5 @ South Carolina St. (-110): 3:00 PM CT No TV
I have to keep rolling with my Spartans as they continue to treat me right this season. Norfolk has moved to 11-3-1 ATS on the season, including 5 straight wins and covers to start conference play. They are undoubtedly the MEAC favorite, and I see them continuing to play like it today.
South Carolina State just doesn’t have a good enough offense to attack this Norfolk defense that has the 10th-best rating in the country. The Bulldogs play at a frenetic pace to disguise the fact that they’re 339th in shooting, but I don’t see that working well against the experienced and athletic guards of Norfolk. The same thing was attempted by Morgan State this week and Norfolk ran them out by 20 points. As long as the Spartans continue to be such short favorites, I’ll continue backing them.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Delaware St. @ Morgan St. -14.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT No TV
Morgan State is a far better team than their recent struggles suggest, and today presents the perfect opportunity to get right. Any time you play Delaware State, you have a great chance to take out frustrations, as the Hornets still have by far the worst average scoring margin in the country. It’s much worse on the road, where DESU is losing by an average 30.1 point margin.
Morgan is the fastest-paced team in the country, and I see them cutting through the awful DESU defense all day for a virtual 40-minute layup line. The Hornets just don’t have the offensive capability to match and that’s a recipe for a blowout. The Bears had one of the worst 2nd-halves imaginable on Monday, so I see them taking it out on perhaps the easiest victim in the country.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Oral Roberts/Denver Over 153.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT No TV
Summit League games, particularly the ones involving Oral Roberts, are almost becoming automatic over plays. This league plays fast and loves to fire from deep, which is a very accurate description of this Golden Eagles team. This is also one of the lower totals you’re going to see in their games, which are often around 160 or higher.
Some of that owes to a highly inconsistent Denver offense that seems to either score 80 or 60 on any given day. But they do have a strong 13-8 record to the over, the result of a defense that’s struggled against the typical Summit style. I see them struggling again to contain the excellent Oral offense, but managing plenty of points since we’ve seen the Golden Eagles struggle at elevation before this season. Oral’s defense has struggled on the road in general allowing 6.6 more PPG than at home, so with their elite scoring ability, I see this getting over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Bellarmine +2.5 @ FL Gulf Coast (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This number just doesn’t seem right for how well Bellarmine is playing right now, and the fact that Gulf Coast consistently finds themselves in tight games. The Bellarmine offense is extremely difficult to prepare for, and they’re an excellent shooting team at 19th in field goal percentage. That has led them to a 6-1 straight up and ATS conference record, with the only loss to the conference leader.
For FGCU, 6 of their 7 conference games have been decided by single digits, getting blown out by 24 in the other. They’ve also struggled against the crème of the A-SUN crop, and that’s what Bellarmine is whether the market recognizes it or not. This is likely to be another tight one, but I’ll take the points with a Knights team that I think wins outright.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Hofstra @ UNC-Wilmington +4.5 (-110): 6:00 PM on FloSports
What is going on with this number? I just don’t understand it and could be walking into a trap, but this is some serious disrespect for the hottest team in the Colonial conference. We should not be ignoring 9 straight covers for the Seahawks, including 7 as an underdog, and catching this many points at home as the conference leader seems extreme.
Hofstra has some impressive performances this season against tough teams, but CAA play has seen them in some tough and tight games. I think that early-season success has inflated this Pride team somewhat, and I just can’t step in front of the cover machine in Wilmington. If the Seahawks can continue to improve their shooting as they have since a lengthy COVID pause, they’re definitely a live dog here, so I’ll take the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) UC Santa Barbara @ Hawaii -1 (-110): 11:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I have a short turnaround to get over Hawaii letting me down Thursday night, where they blew the cover after leading by 20 points late. The Rainbow Warriors closed as 13 point favorites in that game, so this swing to just laying 1 here is too big of a move.
I haven’t seen enough out of UCSB this season, especially on the road, to think they could pull off the outright win on the island. The Gauchos are just 2-8 ATS their past 10 games with both covers coming against awful teams. Hawaii is looking like the best team in the conference, especially with home advantage, and I’ll take them to defend again here at a massively discounted price.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Stanford @ UCLA -11.5 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on PAC12 Network
I have to be careful with this game because UCLA star Johnny Juzang entered COVID protocols late this week. But the spot really does not set up well for Stanford here, coming off a massive road win at USC on Thursday night. That makes it a let-down against this surging Bruins squad.
UCLA was in a prototypical let-down spot of their own on Thursday after knocking off Arizona this week but still ran out Cal by 24 without Juzang. This team seems to finally be playing to their potential, and I see them making a statement against PAC12 upstart Stanford. This is a lot of points without their star, but I see Stanford coming out flat and that could make this ugly for the Cardinal.
NCAA Basketball Howard @ North Carolina Central +2 (-110): 3:00 PM CT No TV
Howard should not be laying points on the road to anyone but the dregs of the MEAC conference. After a brutal month-long COVID pause, NC Central is quickly ascending and should be considered dangerous in this conference. The Eagles have been playing excellent defense, and should be able to slow down the Howard attack today.
The Bison are heavily reliant on shooting the three and do it extremely well. But their defense has struggled to contain anything lately, so if their shots aren’t falling on the road, they could find themselves in trouble here. But I just don’t think the market has caught up to Central, so I’ll take 2 points with a live home dog.
Tiny Nick is 549-441 ATS (+75.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
